Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Prediction: Napoli vs AC Milan

Verdict: Both teams to score – yes

Best Odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: 888sport

Saturday’s action in the Italian Serie A will feature two games, including one where the top team in the standings will host one of the squads that has not been able to live up to their pre-season expectations. Napoli will host AC Milan at San Paolo Stadium looking for a win that can keep them at the top of the standings for, at least, one more week although Milan certainly want to make a statement with a win that can prove everyone they are on the right track. The match will kick-off this Saturday at 19:45 BST, and Daniele Doveri will be the referee.

Napoli

Surprisingly Napoli remain at the top of the standings in the Serie thanks to 32 points in 12 matches. Maurizio Sarri’s men are one of two undefeated sides in the Serie A, and there is no question they fully deserve to be where they are right now. Even though they would probably want their last performance back since they couldn’t win against a struggling Chievo Verona side on the road, nothing would suggest Napoli are trending in the wrong direction on the domestic front. They have one of the top attacking units and one of the best defences, and they are almost at full strength ahead of this game excepting Faouzi Ghoulam. But their home record has been impressive during the current season, and they will take on a Milan side that has struggled against “big teams” in the current campaign. If anything, Napoli appear as favourites solely because of their recent results, their overall play, and their quality attacking line featuring Jose Callejon, Dries Mertens, and Lorenzo Insigne.

Team News

Napoli will have to deal with a huge absentee on defence since Ghoulam is rehabbing from a knee injury, as mentioned above. Striker Arkadiusz Milik has been ruled out with a knee problem as well.

As if that wasn’t enough, Nikola Maksimovic will be a game-time decision for this game. But all signs indicate he is not expected to feature as well.

AC Milan

No one can deny the fact that AC Milan have had a very inconsistent season so far. And it’s undeniable to say that the Rossoneri has not lived up to their pre-season expectations. Milan currently sit in seventh place in the standings after six wins, one draw, and five losses. It is worth noting that four of those five defeats have come against top opposition; Vincenzo Montella’s men already lost to Juventus, Inter Milan, Lazio, and AS Roma in the current term. They have been improving of late and are currently riding a two-game winning streak away from home, but Napoli will be the toughest opponent they have faced in quite a while. And honestly, their past performances might not be enough to get something out of San Paolo. If Milan want to get a positive result, there is no question they need to improve compared to what they had been doing of late. They have proven they can score on the road, but will need to tighten things up defensively since they will play against one of the best attacking units in Europe. Will Milan be up to the challenge? Or will they continue to underperform against top teams?

Team News

Lucas Biglia is doubtful due to a knee injury. The Argentina international will have to undergo further tests to determine whether he will be available or not for this contest.

Andrea Conti (knee) and Davide Calabria (ankle) are out as well.

Key Factors to Consider

  • AC Milan have had a poor track record against “big” teams in the Serie A this season. They already lost to Juventus, Inter Milan, Lazio, and AS Roma.
  • Napoli sit comfortably at the top of the standings with 32 points, thanks to 10 wins and two draws in the current term. They are one of two undefeated teams in the Serie A alongside Inter, who have nine wins and three draws.
  • Napoli also have the best goal difference in the Serie A with a +24 mark. They have scored 32 goals while conceding just eight times.
  • The head-to-head record certainly favours Napoli in recent years. Maurizio Sarri’s men have not lost against Milan in their past five games, registering four wins and one draw over that span.
  • Milan have three wins and three losses away from San Siro Stadium this season. However, they are riding a two-game winning streak on the road.
  • This will be the fifth Sarri and Montella face each other, and Sarri has a 3W 1D 1L record against the former striker.

Conclusion

AC Milan do not have a very good track record on the road. However, they have proven they can score even if they are away from home. They have found the back of the net in five of their last seven away matches, while Napoli have scored at least twice in seven of their home matches this term across all competitions.

As such, expect both teams to score in this one.

Verdict: Both teams to score – yes

Best Odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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