Saturday, September 22, 2018

Prediction: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

Verdict: Under 2,5 goals scored- yes

Best Odds: 13/8

Bookmaker: 888sport

Two Liga sides battling in the race for European spots next season will collide this Sunday, as Atletico Madrid will travel to Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan to take on Sevilla. Los Colchoneros sit comfortable in second place and want to keep themselves alive on the distant race to catch FC Barcelona, while Los Nervionenses want to keep putting pressure on Valencia on the race for the fourth and last UEFA Champions League spot.

Sevilla

Sevilla have dealt with inconsistencies this season, but they have been impressive at home thus far and their recent form backs them up. They have two straight wins in La Liga, are coming off a 2-1 away win over Las Palmas the last time out, and they own a W3 D1 L1 mark over their last five league appearances. They are also coming off a 0-0 draw against Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League, so they are proving they are both playing in good form and handling top opposition. And they will have to produce a similar outing to Wednesday’s one if they want to defeat Atletico, as Diego Pablo Simeone’s men have been one of the top teams in the Liga this far. One thing that should keep Sevilla fans hopeful is their recent form, as they have just one loss in their last 10 home matches across all competitions.

Team News

Sevilla won’t have any confirmed absentees ahead of this game. However, several players have been listed as doubtful.

Nicolas Pareja, Jose Mena, Sebastien Corchia and Lionel Carole are all doubtful. All four will be game-time decisions for Vincenzo Montella.

Atletico Madrid

Sevilla might on good form at the moment, but so are Atletico Madrid. Los Colchoneros have the best defence in the entire league with only nine goals conceded across 24 matches, but they have also been quite proficient on the attacking end. Atletico are riding a four-game winning streak across all competitions, and they are coming off a big 2-0 win over Athletic Bilbao at home the last time. It is worth noting that they have not conceded a single goal in each of their last four Liga matches, so Sevilla will have a tough time to break Jan Oblak’s goal. As if that wasn’t enough, Atletico also registered a a comfortable 5-1 win FC Copenhague in the UEFA Europa League’s Round of 32. They might never reach FC Barcelona at the top of the standings, but they are clearly having a successful season.

Team News

Atletico Madrid should not have many absentees ahead of this game. In fact, Stefan Savic is the only player who has been ruled out with a thigh injury.

Lucas Hernandez is also dealing with a thigh problem and he has been listed as doubtful. He will need a late-fitness test to determine his availability.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sevilla have been playing quite well at home of late. They register a W6 D3 L1 mark over their last 10 games at Sanchez Pizjuan.
  • Atletico Madrid are no pushover, however, and they have been productive on the road as well. They have won five of their last six games away from home across all competitions.
  • Atletico Madrid won the last Liga meeting between both sides. However, Sevilla won the most recent Liga tie at home (1-0)
  • Sevilla’s last four games across all competitions have had under 2.5 goals scored.
  • Sevilla have scored 2+ goals at home in six of their last eight games with over 0,5 goals scored overall.
  • Atletico Madrid have the best defence in the league, since they have allowed just nine goals in 24 Liga matches.

Conclusion

Sevilla have an excellent record at home, but Atletico have looked quite solid away as well. And while Sevilla are not known for being a reliable scoring threat, Atletico’s biggest strength is their defensive play.

Expect a tight encounter. Likely with under 2.5 goals scored.

Verdict: Under 2,5 goals scored- yes

Best Odds: 13/8

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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