Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Prediction: Sevilla vs Liverpool

Verdict: Sevilla win and over 2.5 goals

Best Odds: 11/4

Bookmaker: Bet365

It’s crunch time for Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool side on Tuesday night. With three sides all vying for their spot in the last 16, Liverpool currently hold a one-point lead over a Sevilla side who have not lost a home match in the last year. If Klopp’s reds are able to leave the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan with three points, Liverpool will guarantee their spot in the next round.

Sevilla

With Sevilla only sitting a single point behind their visitors on Tuesday night, Eduardo Berizzo will know how important three points will be in Sevilla’s quest to top Group E. Although Los Rojiblancos are still in touching distance of Liverpool, Berizzo’s side will know that failure to beat Klopp’s men will probably see his Sevilla side fall below Spartak Moscow who sit two points behind the La Liga side.

Currently sat fifth in the La Liga table, Sevilla will be feeling confident ahead of Liverpool’s arrival. After losing three consecutive games to Bilbao, Spartak Moscow and Valencia, Sevilla were a side who had conceded 10 goals with only one in reply. However, since then, Sevilla have turned their fortunes around and apart from a 2-1 defeat away at the Nou Camp, the red and whites have won four of their last five games.

A key part of Sevilla’s success both in Europe and domestically has been their remarkable form at home. Since losing to Juventus in last years tournament, Sevilla are a side who have not lost at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in the last year. In their previous 25 games at home, Sevilla have won 18 and drawn the remaining seven. In Berizzo’s ranks, he also has Wissam Ben Yedder, the French international already has four goals in this years campaign, with one of them coming at Anfield in September.

Team News

Sevilla will have to make do without a number of defensive stars for Liverpool’s visit on Tuesday night. Daniel Carrico and Nicolas Pareja have both been ruled out, while former French international Sebastien Corchia looks a doubt after being forced off in last weekend’s win over Celta Vigo.

After top scorer Ben Yedder and former Manchester City winger Jesus Navas sat out Saturday’s victory, both are expected to be recalled to the XI.

Liverpool

Like their hosts on Tuesday night, Liverpool are a side who have overcome a poor run of form at a vital time. After suffering a humiliating 4-1 defeat away at Tottenham last month, Jurgen Klopp’s reds have won their last four on the bounce scoring 13 goals in those four and only conceding a single goal in reply.

Although Liverpool’s qualification is far from being guaranteed, Klopp’s side are still to be beaten in this seasons Champions League and a win over Sevilla on Tuesday night will push them at least three points ahead of the pack. For Liverpool though, their problems this season have been epitomised by their performances on the road. With only four wins out of their 10 games away from Anfield, the reds have already failed to beat Watford, Man City, Leicester, Spartak Moscow, Newcastle and Tottenham on their journey’s.

Currently sat fifth in the Premier League, much like Sevilla have with Ben Yedder, Liverpool are a side who have a forward enjoying a fine run of form in this seasons qualifying campaign. Summer signing Mohamed Salah has scored four times in the group stages and is averaging a goal a game.

Team News

Still yet to make an appearance this year, England international Adam Lallana has been included in the traveling Liverpool squad. The midfielder has been sidelined since picking up a thigh injury on the Reds pre-season tour. Klopp will be without two defenders for Tuesday’s match, Joel Matip will be sidelined with a groin problem while Nathaniel Clyne is still not ready to make his return.

Loris Karius is expected to start in goal, the German shot-stopper has started every Champions League game this season.

 Key Factors to Consider

  • 67% of Sevilla’s competitive home games this season have seen at least three goals
  • Sevilla beat Liverpool 3-1 in last seasons Europa League final
  • Both Ben Yedder and Mohamed Salah have scored four goals in the Champions League this season, the joint third highest in Europe
  • Klopp’s side already have a spot in the Europa League confirmed
  • Liverpool have only won four of their last 10 away matches

 Conclusion

It looks set to be a tough night’s work for Jurgen Klopp’s side. Sevilla’s outstanding home record is something that can not be overlooked, winning their last seven home matches in a row. Coupled with Liverpool’s inconsistencies on the road, Eduardo Berizzo will be confident about leapfrogging their guests at the top of Group E.

The stats also point to this match-up producing plenty of opportunities. In six of Sevilla’s last nine home games have seen a minimum of three goals, and in seven of Liverpool’s last ten away matches resulting in three or more goals, backing Sevilla to win and over 2.5 goals seems like the most logical bet here.

Verdict: Sevilla win and over 2.5 goals

Best Odds: 11/4

Bookmaker: Bet365

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Tom Dunstan


Formerly of The Independent, Tom is a freelance football and boxing journalist from Essex, England. Currently working for three online publications, Tom is a graduate of the University of Falmouth and has spent the last two years writing across Australia, New Zealand and Asia. He can be followed at @IamTomDunstan

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