Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Prediction: Southampton vs Burnley

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals

Best Odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Bet 365

Southampton will go in search of their first back-to-back victories this season as they entertain Burnley in the Premier League on Saturday.


After a slow start to the season in which they struggled to find any consistency, Southampton are now unbeaten in their last three games and have acquired five points in that period. However, it’s their form at St Mary’s that seems to be a problem for Mauricio Pellegrino’s men after only winning twice there so far in the campaign. The Saints have netted six times in seven matches on their home turf and the fact Manolo Gabbiadini is their top scorer with three goals is evident of their struggles. One minor positive is that Southampton have only conceded 10 times in as many matches and have only lost by two goals on a single occasion.  This could point to a tight game against Burnley on Saturday afternoon that could be settled by a moment of magic. Midfielder Dusan Tadic tends to pop up in the right places at the right time but he’s also struggling in front of goal this season after converting just once in 11 chances.

Team News

Charlie Austin could be welcomed back after sitting out the game against Brighton with a knock. Mario Lemina could also return to first team duties.


After being installed as pre-season relegation candidates, Burnley have defied critics by picking up points at Anfield, Stamford Bridge and Wembley already this campaign. Sean Dyche’s hard-fought win over Newcastle on Monday night meant they have now lost just once in eight games, and even that came at table-topping Manchester City. The English manager has moulded together a team that is hard to break down, while being able to hit teams on the counter-attack, and it seems to be working well so far. The Clarets are sitting proudly in seventh position in the table and are only three points of a Champions League spot. One of the main reasons for Burnley’s success is their defence which has only conceded nine goals in 10 games this season. However, they have also scored the same amount of goals, meaning that most of their games have been pretty tight. There’s no reason to suggest this won’t be the case on Saturday as they face a Southampton team who have also experienced a lot of close games this campaign.

Team News

Chris Wood could return to action after missing the Newcastle game due to a thigh problem.

Meanwhile, Nahki Wells could be in line for his debut after being named on the bench against the Magpies.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Southampton have won their last four home games against Burnley in all competitions
  • The Clarets have only won one of their last 16 visits to St Mary’s (D6 L9)
  • Saints have scored three goals in their last three games, the same amount as they managed in their previous nine at St Mary’s
  • Burnley have already won more away games (2) and more points (8) this season than they did the whole of 2016-17
  • These two sides have seen the fewest goals in the Premier League than any other team this season – Burnley (18) and Southampton (19)


Both of these teams aim to keep games as tight as they can for as long as possible. Both Burnley and Southampton have witnessed the least goals so far this current campaign and we could be in for another low-scoring affair on Saturday.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals

Best Odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Bet 365


Ashley Randall

Ash is a freelance football writer who lives, breathes and dreams the beautiful game. A lifelong Wolverhampton Wanderers season ticket holder, if he isn't at Molineux then he will be watching any game on television that he can set his eyes on. Producing work for various football websites and publications, Ash has also written for regional newspapers and global magazines.



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