Are Leeds the ideal antidote to Man Utd´s xG underperformance woes?

Since Ralf Rangnick took charge at Manchester United, much of the focus on them has revolved around – unsurprisingly – how they press, or don’t, for that matter.

Of course, the overriding narrative when he was appointed fixated on how he was the supposed ‘godfather of gegenpressing’ and would definitely have United pressing more effectively than Liverpool in a matter of weeks…

Okay, there probably weren’t many making such grand claims, but the point remains: United’s off-the-ball work became the focus.

That meant their rather underwhelming attacking displays went a little unnoticed until Rangnick started talking about their expected goals (xG) after their 1-1 draw with Southampton.

As it turns out, since Rangnick’s arrival, United have underperformed their non-penalty xG by 5.5 across all competitions, the worst of any Premier League team in that time. When you do consider spot-kicks, that gap increases to 6.1. Brentford are the second-worst in both metrics (4.31 and 3.67, respectively).

United simply aren’t scoring as many goals as they should given the quality of the chances they’re creating, but you can spin that into a positive.

Assuming they continue to craft opportunities at a similar rate, they should – in theory – level out with respect to xG. Considering recent meetings with Leeds United and their own woes, could Marcelo Bielsa’s men be the tonic they need?

LEEDS LATE TO RIVALRY PARTY

Matches against Man Utd are, in all likelihood, the first games your average Leeds fan will look for when the fixture list is released ahead of the season. While the rivalry may not be as fierce competitively on the pitch as it once was, the two sets of supporters still despise each other.

These rivalry clashes haven’t been especially kind to Leeds since their long-awaited return to the Premier League, though.

Over the three games, Leeds haven’t won once and trail 11-3 on aggregate, with United demolishing them 6-2 at Old Trafford last season and 5-1 there in August. The 0-0 draw at Elland Road in April last season is as good as it’s got – that’s also the last time the Red Devils failed to score on the road.

Leeds suffered those two Old Trafford nightmares having previously only conceded five or more goals away to United in all competitions twice in their previous 50 visits.

Further to that, the 6-2 was the first time a Bielsa team had conceded six times in a competition match since he was in charge of Newell’s Old Boys in February 1992.

It was also the first occasion United had scored at least six goals since “I’d 8-2 be an Arsenal fan” happened, with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men having netted just three times in their previous six home league games.

Of course, last season’s clash at Elland Road was the opposite of a goal fest. The main difference this time is that the game won’t be behind closed doors, though Leeds weren’t quite this defensively feeble then.

LEAKS UNITED

It is worth mentioning that, indeed, Leeds were not as leaky last season, as has been said. But even when they were in good shape, few would consider them among the tightest teams at the back.

Their 54 concessions in 2020-21 may not have been alarming in itself, with six teams letting in more, but at a rate of 1.4 goals conceded every game they were always likely to find themselves in a little danger if, A) they stopped scoring as often, or B) they didn’t improve the defence.

Sure enough, injuries have played a massive part in Leeds’ struggles this season, with most of their key players spending at least a short period on the sidelines.

That’s been especially felt at the back. While Leeds’ goals scored per game remains at a similar – albeit slightly lower – rate (1.5 down from 1.6), their concessions have rocketed from 1.4 every match to 2.0.

Only Norwich City (50) have conceded more Premier League goals than Leeds this season (46), and 26 of those have come in the nine matches since their last clean sheet in November. It’s a diabolical run.

Granted, it would appear they have been somewhat unfortunate. Their expected goals against (xGA) (40.4) is 4.6 lower than their goals conceded (excluding own goals) record, suggesting they have on occasion been punished by particularly impressive finishing.

But their xGA remains the third-poorest in the league and, as the graphic above suggests, they’ve been conceding higher-value chances than they’ve been creating on average practically all season. That -0.74 differential on their rolling average between non-penalty (np) xG for and xGA heading into the weekend highlights just how much worse they are defensively than they are good going forward at the moment.

THAT ONE’S A KEEPER

An interesting underlying narrative ahead of this clash is the form of the respective goalkeepers.

David de Gea is arguably back to his very best, the Spaniard enjoying a wonderful season after falling out of favour in 2020-21 – it’s as though Dean Henderson’s emergence as a viable replacement spooked him into pulling his finger out.

Whereas Illan Meslier is – according to the numbers at least – having a very difficult season.

That’s not necessarily to say Meslier is entirely to blame. In fact, he’s not made any Opta-defined errors leading to shots this term, whereas De Gea has made two. Similarly, as Leeds’ xGA shows, they give away a lot of chances and there’s only so much a goalkeeper – and a young one at that – can do.

Indeed, Meslier was considered one of few positives from Leeds’ recent 3-0 battering by Everton, yet the numbers don’t make for such kind reading.

According to Opta’s ‘goals prevented’ metric, Meslier should have stopped as many as 7.3 of the goals he has conceded this season, by far the worst record in the league (Vicente Guaita: 5.1). De Gea, on the other hand, has apparently been the most decisive keeper, actively preventing 6.9 goals and making a division-high 92 saves.

Meslier is ranked second for saves (80), but it would also seem he has let in several goals the average keeper might’ve been expected to keep out.

Intriguingly, United’s rolling average in terms of np-xG for and xGA has their current differential as the exact inverse of that of Leeds, with Rangnick’s side enjoying a positive 0.74 difference in favour of xG for, meaning they are creating better chances than they concede and are seemingly at their most cohesive in attack all season.

It’s by far the biggest rolling average gap United have seen this term – at least in favour of xG for – and the 2-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion in midweek looked like another step towards being a more ruthless attacking unit.

Creating chances hasn’t really been a problem in recent weeks, the issue has been finishing them off. While rivalry meetings can be unpredictable, and a full house at Elland Road should at least ensure the hosts have a vocal backing, it wouldn’t be in the least bit surprising if Leeds are proven to be the cannon fodder United need.