Prediction: AC Milan vs AS Roma

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 23/20

Bookmaker: 888sport

AC Milan are set to play host to AS Roma at San Siro on Sunday, in the 20th round of the Serie A season.

While Milan continue their efforts to secure top-four placement, and maybe even hope for a bigger slip-up from their city rivals Inter to get them back in the title race, Roma are currently fighting to get within places bringing any kind of European qualification at the end of the season.

Right now, both teams are looking to bounce back from mid-week Coppa Italia disappointments.

AC Milan

Following a convincing 4-1 victory over Cagliari in the Coppa Italia, Milan kicked off 2024 with their fourth consecutive home win. Their recent league triumph against Empoli suggested a promising path towards the cup semi-finals, building on a 3-0 Serie A success at Stadio Carlo Castellani, where Ruben Loftus-Cheek and veteran Olivier Giroud scored before rookie forward Chaka Traore added to the tally.

Despite taking the lead just before halftime in the Coppa quarter-finals against Atalanta through Rafael Leao, the Rossoneri faced a quick response from their Lombardy rivals, with Teun Koopmeiners equalizing and converting a second-half penalty, securing Atalanta’s place in the last eight.

Milan’s two-decade drought in Italy’s knockout competition continues, but Stefano Pioli’s team cannot dwell on the disappointment. They currently sit nine points behind league leaders Inter with half the season remaining. Milan have shown strength in the last seven Serie A matchdays, earning 16 points and keeping four clean sheets—only Inter and Juventus have performed better. This positive form might instill confidence as they face their next opponents, maintaining pressure on the top two.

Milan’s record against Roma at home is formidable, having remained unbeaten in the last five encounters, including a 2-2 draw in the previous season. The Rossoneri’s last league loss to the capital club at San Siro dates back more than six years.

Team News

Despite the continued unavailability of the center-back trio Pierre Kalulu, Malick Thiaw, and Fikayo Tomori due to injury, Milan’s injury problems at the back haven’t worsened since the last game. Matteo Gabbia, who was substituted after an unfortunate collision with Atalanta’s Marten De Roon midweek, is expected to recover in time.

Tommaso Pobega remains ruled out, and there’s uncertainty surrounding the participation of Alessandro Florenzi against his former club. Ismael Bennacer and Samuel Chukwueze are currently away at the Africa Cup of Nations.

On a positive note for Pioli, Swiss striker Noah Okafor has returned to full training and may be included on the bench. December’s ‘Serie A Player of the Month,’ Christian Pulisic, is set to join Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud, both of whom found the net in the reverse fixture in September, in the attacking lineup.

AS Roma

Roma finds themselves in a challenging position, having failed to secure a victory in their last eight Serie A encounters against Milan, enduring five defeats since their 2-1 win in October 2019.

Recent setbacks, including losses to Bologna and Juventus in the league, coupled with their elimination from the Coppa Italia earlier in the week, have dampened the optimism that followed a promising run from November into early December. In a recent clash with arch-rivals Lazio at Stadio Olimpico, a second-half penalty by Mattia Zaccagni decided the outcome of a fiery-tempered encounter.

The game was marred by incidents such as Edoardo Bove being hit by a beer bottle thrown from the stands and racist chants directed at Romelu Lukaku. The match concluded with dismissals for substitute Sardar Azmoun and stand-in captain Gianluca Mancini, while Lazio’s Pedro also saw a red card against his former club.

With only the Europa League offering a chance to salvage silverware from what has been an underwhelming campaign, Roma currently sit eighth in Serie A, on their way to miss out on Champions League qualification once again.

The vulnerability on the road is evident for Giallorossi, who lost both of their last two away games in Serie A without scoring. Additionally, head coach Jose Mourinho was sent off in Roma’s game against Atalanta last week, and his absence from the dugout through suspension further complicates their task as they aim to reverse their decline in Milan.

Team News

Lukaku aims to continue his scoring streak against the Rossoneri, having found the net in all four league games he has started against them.

As Mourinho contemplates his attacking options, the ex-Inter striker could be partnered by either Stephan El Shaarawy or Andrea Belotti upon his return to San Siro. Paulo Dybala, however, faces uncertainty after sustaining another muscular injury in the Rome Derby, making him a doubtful participant in the upcoming match.

Azmoun has for the Asian Cup in Qatar after receiving a two-match ban for his red card against Lazio. Mancini, who was also dismissed in the same match, is set to serve a three-match suspension, but these sanctions apply exclusively to next season’s Coppa Italia.

Similar to Pioli, Mourinho is grappling with defensive issues too. Evan Ndicka is currently representing Ivory Coast at the AFCON, and Chris Smalling remains sidelined. Additionally, Mancini and Diego Llorente are dealing with minor injuries.

Conclusion

Milan will have a good opportunity to complete a league double over Roma on Sunday, with the visitors going through a crisis both with injuries and temper issues at the moment.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 23/20

Bookmaker: 888sport