Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

Atletico Madrid

Atlético return to familiar territory in the Copa del Rey semi-finals, facing the same opponent that denied them a place in last year’s final. In that tie, a frenetic 4-4 draw in the first leg was followed by a narrow 1-0 defeat at the Camp Nou, sending Barcelona through to lift the trophy.

This time around, Atlético’s route to the last four included a resounding 5-0 demolition of Real Betis in the quarter-finals—one of their strongest performances of the campaign. However, their momentum stalled immediately afterwards, as they fell 1-0 to Betis in the league just days later.

That loss highlighted their recent inconsistency: Simeone’s men have won only two of their last five outings across all competitions, drawing once and losing twice. In La Liga, they sit third with 45 points—but a sizeable 13-point deficit to leaders Barcelona means their title hopes are hanging in the balance.

With the league drifting away, the Copa del Rey represents a major opportunity for silverware, and Atlético enter this tie keen to avoid a repeat of last season’s heartbreak.

Team News

Marc Pubill could feature after missing the recent league fixture due to illness, while Nicolás González remains a doubt because of persistent discomfort.

Johnny Cardoso is out with a muscle injury and Pablo Barrios is sidelined with a thigh issue, having lasted only 50 minutes in their previous Copa outing.

Barcelona

Barcelona arrive in scintillating form, with Hansi Flick’s side riding a six‑match winning streak in all competitions. They have scored at least twice in each of those victories, underlining the potency of their attack.

Sitting top of La Liga with 58 points from 23 matches, Barcelona boast the competition’s best offensive record—63 goals scored—and a strong defensive base with just 23 conceded. Their most recent league outing saw them sweep aside Mallorca 3-0, with Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and Marc Bernal finding the net.

With the Spanish Super Cup already secured, Barcelona remain alive in all major competitions: first in La Liga, into the Champions League last 16, and now pushing for yet another Copa del Rey final as they pursue a potential treble.

Encouragingly for Flick’s side, Barcelona have won the last three meetings between these two clubs, a psychological advantage they will look to extend in Thursday’s opening leg.

Team News

Frenkie de Jong is a doubt as he manages a groin concern, while Andreas Christensen remains out with the long‑term cruciate ligament injury he suffered in December.

Gavi continues his recovery from a meniscus issue, Pedri is sidelined with a hamstring problem, and Raphinha is still unavailable due to a thigh injury.

Head‑to‑Head

Barcelona have held the upper hand recently, winning the last three encounters between the sides. Last season’s Copa semi-final saw Barça progress with a 1-0 second‑leg win after an extraordinary 4-4 first leg in Madrid.

Atlético’s home form typically makes this fixture fiercely competitive, but recent history leans decisively toward the Catalans.

Conclusion

Atlético Madrid will draw strength from their home crowd and the burning desire to avoid a repeat of last season’s elimination. However, Barcelona’s form, depth and attacking rhythm make them formidable opponents.

With multiple goal threats and the ability to manage momentum swings, the visitors may have the edge in this first leg. In a tight, high‑pressure encounter, Barça’s composure in the final third could prove decisive.

Verdict: Away win

Best odds: 11/10

Bookmaker: Olympusbet