Prediction: Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 3/2

Bookmaker: Luckster

One week after suffering a sobering defeat in South London, Fiorentina return to the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Thursday night tasked with producing a dramatic recovery in the second leg of their Conference League quarter‑final against Crystal Palace.

The Italian side arrived at Selhurst Park boasting an unblemished record at this stage of the competition, but a 3–0 loss has left them on the brink of their earliest exit since the tournament’s inception.

Fiorentina

Fiorentina find themselves in unfamiliar territory after last week’s first leg, where Paolo Vanoli’s side were comprehensively outplayed during a punishing first half and ultimately undone late on in a 3–0 defeat. Despite their history as two‑time finalists and three‑time semi‑finalists in the Conference League, the Viola now face their sternest European challenge yet.

This is the first time Fiorentina have been required to overturn a three‑goal deficit at this stage of continental competition. Although they have never lost a Conference League quarter‑final, the club has faced similar scenarios on three previous occasions in Europe and failed to turn the tie around each time. Of their 11 European quarter‑finals overall, they have won 10, with only Celtic ending their run back in the 1969‑70 season, but that impressive record now looks under severe threat.

Home supporters will hope for a response, yet logic suggests Fiorentina’s 56‑year streak of avoiding defeat at this stage may finally come to an end without an extraordinary turnaround. Domestically, there was some relief at the weekend as a David De Gea‑inspired 1–0 win over Lazio all but secured Serie A survival, moving the Viola eight points clear of danger with six matches remaining. With relegation fears easing, attention now turns fully back to Europe.

Team News

Right‑back Dodô will miss the second leg after picking up a booking in the first, while an array of players—including Marin Pongračić, Pietro Comuzzo, Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Nicolò Fagioli and Albert Gudmundsson—risk a one‑match suspension should Fiorentina progress further. Moise Kean remains doubtful with a calf injury, and his limited European impact this season raises questions even if he is fit.

Fabiano Parisi and Nicolò Fortini are also carrying fitness concerns, while Tariq Lamptey is definitely ruled out with a knee injury. Should Kean be unavailable, Fiorentina will rely on Roberto Piccoli, Gudmundsson and Ndour for attacking spark, with all three chasing additions to their existing three Conference League goals.

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace arrive in Florence in a commanding position and fully aware of Fiorentina’s struggles against English opposition, having failed to beat Premier League clubs in their last four attempts. Oliver Glasner’s side will aim to extend that run, though managing such a healthy lead brings its own tactical dilemma between aggression and control.

This is new ground for the Eagles, who carry a three‑goal cushion into a European second leg for the first time. Their authoritative display at Selhurst Park, especially in the opening half‑hour, placed them firmly in the driving seat before Ismaïla Sarr’s late strike effectively doubled Fiorentina’s task.

Sarr has been instrumental throughout Palace’s knockout run and has truly come alive since February, scoring four of his six Conference League goals during that period. His brace against AEK Larnaca in the round of 16 and his goal in the first leg underline his importance, while his total of six goals places him behind only Marius Mouandilmadji and Mikael Ishak in the competition.

Palace’s wider momentum also supports their cause. The Eagles have lost only one of their last 10 matches across all competitions, a dramatic turnaround after losing nine of 14 games during a bleak winter spell. Carrying such a commanding lead into unfamiliar European territory, Glasner’s experience on the continent may prove pivotal in negotiating the inevitable pressure periods on Thursday.

Team News

Team selection looks comparatively stable. Palace will once again look toward Sarr for inspiration, while Jean‑Philippe Mateta continues his own strong run, having scored three goals in his last two games, including a penalty in the reverse fixture. The striker will attempt to score in three consecutive matches for the first time this season.

Injury concerns remain minimal. Eddie Nketiah is sidelined with a thigh issue, long‑term absentee Cheick Doucouré continues his recovery, and Evann Guessand is managing a knock, but otherwise the Eagles travel with a healthy and confident squad.

Conclusion

All runs do eventually end, and Fiorentina’s proud record of never losing a Conference League quarter‑final tie appears destined to fall on Thursday night. Although the Viola may well claim victory on home soil, the scale of the deficit looks too great to overcome.

With Palace riding momentum and boasting multiple late‑game threats, the English side are well placed to absorb pressure and secure passage into their first‑ever European semi‑final.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 3/2

Bookmaker: Luckster