Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 13/5

Bookmaker: Olympusbet

The latest chapter of the Madrid derby unfolds at the Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday evening, as Real Madrid host Atletico Madrid in a high-stakes top-of-the-table clash in La Liga.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side currently sit at the summit, but with just a one-point cushion over second-placed Atletico, and Diego Simeone’s men remain firmly in the title race with 18 matches still to play.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid don’t appear to have hit full stride yet this season, yet Carlo Ancelotti’s men remain top of La Liga, have secured a Copa del Rey semifinal spot, and are preparing for a Champions League play-off tie against Manchester City.

Los Blancos booked their place in the last four of the cup with a dramatic 3-2 victory over Leganes on Wednesday, as Gonzalo Garcia netted his first goal for the club to seal a last-gasp win. Meanwhile, their focus will soon shift to next week’s trip to the Etihad Stadium for the first leg of their European showdown with Man City, facing an old foe in City boss Pep Guardiola.

However, Real Madrid cannot afford to lose too much focus in La Liga, especially after last weekend’s shock 1-0 defeat to struggling Espanyol, which saw their lead at the top cut to just one point over Atletico. With only four points separating third-placed Barcelona from the league leaders, the title race remains finely poised, and Madrid have already suffered a major home setback this season, conceding four goals to Barcelona in October.

The last two league encounters between Real Madrid and Atletico have ended in 1-1 draws, including their September meeting at the Wanda Metropolitano and last season’s corresponding fixture at the Bernabeu.

Meanwhile, Los Blancos have triggered a massive off-pitch battle against the rest of the Spanish top flight, with the remaining 19 clubs asking for Real to be punished for the tone of their formal complaint about the officiating in their loss to Espanyol.

Team News

Real Madrid have received a significant fitness boost ahead of the Madrid derby, with Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham, Lucas Vazquez, and Eduardo Camavinga all available for selection.

Mbappe, Bellingham, and Vazquez were sidelined against Leganes due to minor concerns, while Camavinga was still recovering from a hamstring issue, but all four are now ready to feature this weekend.

However, Antonio Rudiger is set to be out for at least two weeks with a thigh injury, while long-term absentees Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal remain unavailable due to serious knee problems. David Alaba also continues his recovery from a muscular issue, meaning Aurelien Tchouameni and Raul Asencio are expected to form the central defensive partnership for the derby.

Atletico Madrid

To the surprise of many, Atletico Madrid have emerged as genuine title contenders this season, enjoying an impressive campaign across multiple competitions. Diego Simeone’s side have already secured a spot in the Champions League knockout rounds and reached the Copa del Rey semifinals after a commanding 5-0 victory over Getafe on Tuesday.

Their recent 2-0 league win against Mallorca moved them up to 48 points, with a record of 14 wins, six draws, and just two defeats from 22 matches. While Atletico have earned 18 points away from home this season, they now face a Real Madrid side that has been dominant at the Bernabeu, winning nine of their 10 league games at home.

Atletico, who last won La Liga in 2020/21, have proven to be a tough opponent for Real in recent meetings. They are unbeaten in their last four league encounters against Los Blancos and have lost just once in the last six. However, Simeone’s men have not claimed a league victory at the Bernabeu since February 2016, making this a crucial test in their title pursuit.

Team News

Atletico Madrid will be without Robin Le Normand due to suspension, but they otherwise have a near full-strength squad for the Madrid derby. Pablo Barrios has returned to training and could be available for selection.

Despite scoring 11 goals this season, Alexander Sorloth is likely to start on the bench, with Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez – who have netted 15 and 16 times respectively – leading the attack.

Simeone is expected to make several changes from the Copa del Rey win over Getafe. Jan Oblak will return in goal, while Clement Lenglet, Marcos Llorente, and Conor Gallagher are all set to be recalled to the starting lineup at the Bernabeu.

Conclusion

The last two times these team met at the home of Real Madrid, the matches ended in a 1-1 draw, and it may well happen again as Rojiblancos continue to frustrate their city rivals.

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 13/5

Bookmaker: Olympusbet

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Veselin Trajkovic


Vesko is a football writer that likes to observe the game for what it is, focusing on teams, players and their roles, formations, tactics, rather than stats. He follows the English Premier League closely, Liverpool FC in particular. His articles have been published on seven different football blogs.

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