It has been another off-season of change in Italy, but Serie A returns this week and another intriguing campaign awaits.
Inter were champions last term, ending Juventus’ run of nine straight Scudetti, but they have not been able to keep their title-winning side together.
Romelu Lukaku is gone, as is coach Antonio Conte, while Massimiliano Allegri has returned to Juve to tee up another tilt.
So, what does that all mean for the coming season? Stats Perform attempts to find out.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams’ attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years’ worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Read on to see who can realistically compete with Inter and who should be looking over their shoulders…
THREE FIGHTING FOR TITLE
Inter might have lost some key men, but the model is backing a team that finished second and then first to lead the way again.
The Nerazzurri are given the best chance of taking the title (45.1 per cent), while they certainly should make the top four even without Lukaku and Conte, rated as a 94.2 per cent likelihood.
Unsurprisingly, Juve are the closest challengers to Inter’s crown, with a 21.5 per cent shot.
It is not set to be a two-horse race, though, as Atalanta are the third and final team to be given a substantial chance at 19.6 per cent.
In fact, Atalanta’s lowest probable finish of ninth is higher than Juve’s 10th, with another exciting season expected for La Dea.
TOP FOUR SETTLED?
There is strength in depth in Serie A this season, but the model has identified a clear frontrunner for the fourth Champions League place.
Napoli, with a 9.4 per cent title chance, have a 68.6 per cent likelihood of making the top four, putting them well clear of the rest despite finishing fifth in 2020-21.
That means disappointment for big names like Milan, Lazio and Jose Mourinho’s Roma.
Milan do have a 44.0 per cent shot at Champions League qualification, but that is a modest opportunity given they were second last term and led the league for half the season. A Scudetto triumph is rated at 3.6 per cent.
Lazio, under Maurizio Sarri, have a 14.9 per cent hope of a top-four place, while Mourinho clearly has work to do as rivals Roma are only given an 8.2 per cent likelihood.
Besides those sides, only Sassuolo – 1.1 per cent for the Champions League, 2.6 for the Europa League and 8.2 per cent for the Europa Conference League – are realistically also in the European picture.
STRAIGHT BACK DOWN AGAIN
The model does not make for pretty reading for the three promoted sides, who are all expected to spend only a single season in the top flight before returning to Serie B.
For Salernitana and Venezia, a particularly brutal campaign could be in store. They are highly likely to go down, rated at 95.9 per cent and 94.8 per cent respectively.
Empoli are given a slightly improved chance but are still expected to be relegated, at 79.3 per cent.
Torino’s awful season, finishing 17th in 2020-21, should not be repeated, with merely a 4.3 per cent likelihood of demotion.
That still makes them sixth favourites for the drop, also behind Spezia (6.0 per cent) and Hellas Verona (5.4 per cent).
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