The Numbers Game: Leaders to be tested by champions as Arsenal face Liverpool

Before the season, Thursday’s meeting between Arsenal and Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium might have been circled in the diary as a potential Premier League title decider.

And when Dominik Szoboszlai’s stunning free-kick guided the champions to a 1-0 win over the Gunners back in August, maintaining their perfect start to their title defence under Arne Slot, it appeared certain the reverse fixture would have title ramifications for both teams.

However, following Liverpool’s terrible run in the Autumn, 14 points split these teams in the table, with Manchester City and Aston Villa instead emerging as Arsenal’s title rivals.

Liverpool, meanwhile, are battling for Champions League qualification, sitting three points clear of fifth-placed Chelsea and only six above Everton, all the way down in 12th.

But the Reds will still want to make things as difficult as possible for their would-be successors, and Mikel Arteta will see the game as a pivotal landmark on the road to the title.

Here, we use Opta insights to look ahead to the game, picking out the key players and storylines to watch.

What’s expected?

Opta’s predictive model has given the Premier League leaders its backing, as they won 61.7% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Liverpool only won 18.1% of those sims, with the remaining 20.2% finishing level.

But Arsenal have historically struggled in this fixture. Against no side have they lost more Premier League games than they have against Liverpool (26, level with Manchester United).

The Reds could also complete their eighth Premier League double over Arsenal, with their seven season doubles already the most any team has achieved over the Gunners.

And Arsenal have conceded in each of their last 20 Premier League games against the Reds, since a goalless draw in August 2015.

Only against Man Utd (30 between 1953 and 1968) and Tottenham (24 between 1955 and 1967) have they ever had a longer run without a clean sheet in their league history.

This will be the first time the teams have ever met in a Premier League game on a Thursday, though, making Liverpool only the second team Arsenal have faced on all seven days of the week in the competition, after Southampton.

Their last meeting on a Thursday came at Anfield in December 1947, and that game finished 3-1 to Arsenal.

Crucial staging post for in-form Arsenal

Arsenal could hardly have wished for a better start to 2026. While Man City have dropped points twice since the turn of the year, drawing 0-0 with Sunderland and 1-1 with Chelsea, Arsenal battled to a topsy-turvy 3-2 victory at Bournemouth last time out.

They now boast a six-point gap to both City and Aston Villa going into Matchday 21, and the Opta supercomputer rates their chances of winning the title at 84.8%.

City only won the title in 10.9% of the model’s season simulations, with Villa doing so in 4.2% and Liverpool’s chances now virtually non-existent at 0.07%.

Arsenal’s rivals will already have played by the time Thursday’s game kicks off, but regardless of their results – City are at home to Brighton on Wednesday while Villa visit Crystal Palace – Arteta will see this as a crucial test his team must pass to become champions.

The Gunners have won their last two Premier League home matches against the reigning champions, beating City in both 2023-24 and 2024-25.

They last did so in three consecutive league seasons between 1961-62 and 1963-64, when they overcame Tottenham, Ipswich Town and Everton.

Saturday’s victory at Bournemouth was Arsenal’s 15th in 20 Premier League games this campaign. Only in 1932-22 and 2022-23 have they recorded more victories within their first 20 matches of a league season (W16 D2 L2) in both cases.

The Gunners have won five straight games since losing at Villa Park in early December, and on home soil, they have strung together seven victories in a row.

Only once under Arteta have they enjoyed a longer such run, winning 10 straight games on their own turf between April and December 2022.

Before this season, there have been nine campaigns in which the Premier League leaders were at least six points clear when the teams in first and second had each played 20 matches.

In six of those nine campaigns, the team in the lead went on to capture the title. There is a long way to go for Arsenal yet, but should they navigate this match, it will be a major boost to their hopes of title glory.

Could set-piece weakness cost Liverpool?

Arsenal’s set-piece prowess is not exactly a secret.

In 2024 and 2025, Arteta’s team became only the second Premier League side to score 20 set-piece goals (excluding penalties) in back-to-back calendar years, after Wimbledon did so between 1993-94 and 1995-96.

This season, Arsenal lead all clubs in the Premier League for goals (12, joint with Leeds United) and expected goals (9.9 xG) from dead-ball situations.

Liverpool, by contrast, have struggled from set-pieces all campaign, leading Slot to say over the festive period that they had no chance of contending for the title until they improved from those situations.

The Reds have shipped the joint-most goals from set-pieces in the Premier League this season (13, level with Bournemouth), with 46.4% of the goals they have conceded coming via this route.

Only Crystal Palace (52.2%) have conceded a greater proportion of their goals from such situations this season, while 33.6% of the shots Liverpool have faced have also come from set-pieces.

Liverpool have also struggled from attacking set-pieces, ranking 18th in the division for xG from dead balls (4.7) and joint-last – alongside bottom club Wolves – for goals (three).

Only a long-range thunderbolt from Harrison Reed denied the Reds two points in Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Fulham, though they had not looked particularly solid before shipping that stoppage-time equaliser.

And if Liverpool do not keep close tabs on the likes of Gabriel Magalhaes – who became only the second defender to score 20 Premier League goals for Arsenal in their victory over Bournemouth – they could give themselves a mountain to climb.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Saka has scored in each of Arsenal’s last three home Premier League games against Liverpool.

In the Gunners’ league history, none of their players have ever netted in four consecutive home league games against the Reds.

Liverpool – Dominik Szoboszlai

Szoboszlai was the hero when these teams last met, and with Mohamed Salah still at the Africa Cup of Nations and Hugo Ekitike’s condition still to be determined after he suffered a thigh injury, he could get an opportunity to play further forward.

Only Bruno Fernandes has been involved in more open-play sequences ending in a shot (116) than Szoboszlai (103) in the Premier League this season.

But if those stats are adjusted to per 90 minutes, excluding players to have played fewer than 1,000 minutes, Arsenal star Saka is third with 6.4, only behind Jeremy Doku (7.2) and Fernandes (7.1).