The Numbers Game: Will Liverpool bring Leeds back down to earth at Elland Road?

Liverpool have struggled on all fronts in recent weeks, with Sunderland the latest team to take points away from the Reds at home.

Following their 1-1 draw with the Black Cats on Wednesday, Liverpool have failed to win three successive games at Anfield in all competitions for the first time since a run of eight in March 2021.

Arne Slot’s team have not enjoyed their recent away trips either in the Premier League, having lost seven of their last 11 top-flight away games (W4), with only Fulham and Wolves (eight each) losing more since the start of April.

To put that into context, the Reds’ previous seven away defeats had come over a 45-game spell between January 2023 and February 2025.

But after defeating West Ham 2-0 in their most recent away game, Liverpool have the chance to turn their form on the road around when they travel to Elland Road on Saturday to face Leeds United, who beat Chelsea last time out.

Here is what the Opta data says ahead of this weekend’s meeting.

What’s expected?

Leeds have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L8), beating them 2-1 at Anfield in October 2022.

However, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six Premier League away games against Leeds (W4 D2), winning 6-1 on their most recent visit to Elland Road in April 2023.

The Reds’ last two league victories against Leeds have been by 6-0 and 6-1 scorelines. Only Arsenal have scored six or more goals against an opponent in three different Premier League games before (versus Blackburn Rovers).

After running 10,000 simulations of this match, the Opta supercomputer predicts that Liverpool will return to winning ways at Elland Road.

The Reds have been given a 55.8% chance of victory, while Leeds have a 22.1% probability of recording back-to-back wins for the first time in the league this season.

A draw has been given a likelihood of 22%, though Leeds will be desperate to build on their home win against Chelsea during the week, while Liverpool are also in search of some much-needed momentum.

Can Farke harness Elland Road power again?

Daniel Farke would certainly have been full of relief when Leeds stunned Chelsea 3-1.

It was a win that saw the Whites move out of the Premier League relegation zone and end a four-match losing run in the competition, and ease some of the pressure that had been building on Leeds’ boss.

Leeds showed signs of their determination to avoid the drop during their 3-2 defeat to Manchester City last weekend, and it was on display again against the Blues.

The Whites produced 2.82 expected goals (xG) in the win, the second-highest total by a team against the Blues in the Premier League since Enzo Maresca took charge, behind only Tottenham’s 2.9 in December 2024. Albeit, it should be noted that Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s goal, which made it 3-1, did account for 0.99 of that xG total.

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