Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Prediction: AC Milan vs Lecce

Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5

Best odds: 6/4

Bookmaker: 888sport

AC Milan continue their pursuit of the Scudetto on Sunday evening as they welcome struggling Lecce to San Siro.

With the Rossoneri aiming to apply pressure on their title rivals, Eusebio Di Francesco’s side arrive in desperate need of points to avoid being dragged deeper into the relegation battle.

AC Milan

Catching up on a postponed fixture after their Supercoppa Italiana trip to Saudi Arabia, Milan faced Lombardy rivals Como on Thursday night. Despite conceding first and surrendering most of the possession, Max Allegri’s men showcased their trademark resilience.

Mike Maignan’s stunning close-range save proved a turning point, sparking a comeback that saw Christopher Nkunku convert a penalty before Adrien Rabiot struck twice to seal a 3-1 win. That result extended Milan’s unbeaten Serie A run, which dates back to the opening matchday—a sequence matching their best since 2004. Allegri now eyes the historic 23-game streak set under Fabio Capello in 1992-93.

Milan’s ability to recover from adversity has been remarkable. They have gained 13 points from losing positions this season, the highest tally in the league. With 15 wins from 19 home meetings against Lecce, history favors the Rossoneri, though they have dropped points against bottom-five sides recently, drawing four of their last five such encounters.

Team News
Strahinja Pavlovic remains a doubt after suffering a head injury that required nine stitches, with Koni De Winter ready to deputize again. Santiago Gimenez is the only confirmed absentee, leaving Allegri with a wealth of attacking options.

Christian Pulisic could partner Rafael Leao or Niclas Fullkrug, while Nkunku—five goal involvements in his last four league games—should retain his place.

Lecce

Lecce’s Serie A survival fight continues after a difficult start to 2026. The Salentini have collected just one point this year and return to San Siro days after a narrow 1-0 defeat to Inter, where they held firm for 77 minutes before conceding.

That loss followed a costly defeat to Parma, in which two red cards left Lecce with nine men.

Their attacking woes persist—they remain bottom of the league’s scoring charts and have failed to score in three straight games against Milan, their longest-ever drought in this fixture.

Team News

Francesco Camarda misses out on facing his parent club due to a shoulder injury, with Nikola Stulic expected to lead the line.

Di Francesco also loses suspended defenders Danilo Veiga and Kialonda Gaspar, though Lameck Banda and Ylber Ramadani return from bans. Medon Berisha remains sidelined, but Tete Morente is back in contention.

Head-to-Head

Milan have dominated this fixture historically, winning 15 of 19 home meetings. Lecce’s only victory against the Rossoneri in the past 28 encounters came nearly two decades ago, and their 2-0 defeat in September extended a long losing trend.

Conclusion

Milan’s recent habit of dropping points against struggling sides adds intrigue, but Lecce’s lack of firepower and defensive absences suggest a tough evening for the visitors.

Expect Allegri’s men to control proceedings and edge closer to their unbeaten record, while Wladimiro Falcone may be in for another busy night between the sticks.

Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5

Best odds: 6/4

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Veselin Trajkovic


Vesko is a football writer that likes to observe the game for what it is, focusing on teams, players and their roles, formations, tactics, rather than stats. He follows the English Premier League closely, Liverpool FC in particular. His articles have been published on seven different football blogs.

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