Prediction: AEK Athens vs Universitatea Craiova

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 2/5

Bookmaker: Olympusbet

The final round of the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage brings a crucial clash between AEK Athens and Universitatea Craiova. Both sides have plenty to play for: AEK aim to secure direct qualification to the last 16, while Craiova need a positive result to keep their knockout hopes alive. With contrasting styles and recent form, this encounter promises intensity and tactical intrigue.

AEK Athens

AEK Athens are enjoying an excellent run of form across all competitions. In the Greek Super League, they sit 3rd with 34 points from 14 matches, having recorded 11 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, scoring 24 goals and conceding 10. Their domestic dominance was underlined by a 5-0 victory over Panetolikos in their latest league outing, following a 4-1 win against Atromitos and a 2-0 triumph over OFI Crete. In Europe, AEK have bounced back from an opening defeat to NK Celje, collecting 10 points from five group matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and scoring 11 goals while conceding 5. Their most recent Conference League result was a 2-1 away win at Samsunspor, with Răzvan Marin and Aboubakary Koita on target.

Under coach Marko Nikolić, AEK play a possession-based game with a high defensive line, averaging 57% possession and creating over 11 shots per match in Europe. Key performers include Luka Jović, who has scored six goals this season, and creative midfielders Orbelín Pineda and Robert Ljubicic, who provide attacking thrust. The OPAP Arena has been a fortress, with AEK winning six of their last seven home matches in all competitions.

Team News

AEK will be without Orbelín Pineda (suspension) and Alexander Callens (heart condition), while Frantzdy Pierrot and Zini are sidelined with injuries. Niclas Eliasson and Dereck Kutesa are also unavailable due to muscle problems.

Despite these absences, Nikolić can still call on a strong lineup featuring Jović, Koita, and veteran defender Domagoj Vida.

Universitatea Craiova

Universitatea Craiova currently occupy 4th place in Romania’s Liga I with 34 points from 19 matches, boasting 9 wins, 7 draws, and 3 defeats, with a goal difference of +10 (30 scored, 20 conceded). Their recent domestic form includes a 2-0 away win at Hermannstadt, which followed a 1-1 draw with CFR Cluj and a 4-0 Romanian Cup victory over Petrolul Ploiești. In the Conference League, Craiova have collected 7 points from five matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 4 goals and conceding 5. Their last European outing ended in a 2-1 home defeat to Sparta Prague, despite a late equalizer from Steven Nsimba before conceding at the death.

Coach Filipe Coelho favors a 3-5-2 system built on midfield control and quick transitions. Craiova average 57% possession and 13 shots per game in recent matches, with Assad Al Hamlawi, Ștefan Baiaram, and Steven Nsimba sharing the attacking burden. Away from home, Craiova have been resilient, losing only once in their last eight away fixtures across all competitions.

Team News

Craiova will be without Tudor Băluță (appendicitis) and Vladimir Screciu (muscle contracture), while Carlos Mora and Mihnea Rădulescu are sidelined with injuries. These absences could force Coelho to rely on Nicușor Bancu and Alexandru Cicaldău for creativity, with Al Hamlawi and Baiaram expected to lead the attack.

Head-to-Head

This will be the third competitive meeting between AEK Athens and Universitatea Craiova. The previous encounters came in the 2019 Europa League qualifiers, where AEK won 2-0 away and drew 1-1 at home to progress 3-1 on aggregate. Craiova have never beaten AEK in European competition.

Conclusion

AEK Athens enter as clear favorites, backed by superb form and home advantage. Their attacking depth and defensive solidity should prove decisive against a Craiova side missing key players. However, Craiova’s disciplined approach and strong away record suggest they won’t go down without a fight.

Expect AEK to dominate possession and create more chances, but a narrow win for the Greek side appears the most likely outcome.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 2/5

Bookmaker: Olympusbet