Prediction: Finland vs Lithuania

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 23/50

Bookmaker: Luckster

Aiming to stay in contention for their first-ever World Cup appearance, Finland host Lithuania in Helsinki on Thursday night.

After losing ground in last month’s defeat to playoff rivals Poland, the Finns cannot afford another slip-up at home against one of Group G’s outsiders, with a tough trip to the Netherlands looming just days later.

Finland

Appointed after a run of six straight losses at the end of 2024, when Finland finished bottom of their Nations League group, Danish coach Jacob Friis has gradually steadied the ship over the past nine months.

A 1-0 opening win against Malta and four points from their next three fixtures raised hopes of a turnaround, but a friendly loss to Norway and a 3-1 defeat in Poland last month have left the Eagle-owls outside the top two.

That result allowed Poland to seize second place behind the Netherlands and left Finland down in 71st in the FIFA rankings, with 11 defeats since the start of last year.

To keep their qualification dream alive, nothing less than victory will do on home soil against Lithuania.

Team News

Finland will once again be without captain and goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky, midfielder Rasmus Schuller and defender Tony Miettinen due to injury.

Palermo’s Jesse Joronen should step in for Hradecky between the posts, while his clubmate Joel Pohjanpalo is expected to lead the attack, having scored twice in qualifying so far. Benjamin Kallman and Oliver Antman are vying for the supporting role.

Lithuania

Lithuania’s five past meetings with Finland have produced two wins apiece and one draw — the latter a 2-2 contest in Kaunas back in March, when the Baltic side clawed back from two goals down through Armandas Kucys and Gvidas Gineitis.

Jankauskas’ side have just three points in Group G but came close to shocking the Netherlands last time out, battling back from two goals down before losing 3-2 to a late Memphis Depay winner.

With little realistic hope of reaching the playoffs, their focus has turned to avoiding bottom spot and improving their FIFA coefficient.

Team News

Torino midfielder Gineitis remains the key creative spark, with four goal involvements so far.

Veteran winger Fedor Cernych is chasing his country’s all-time appearance record and could feature off the bench, while Gytis Paulauskas leads the line.

Edgaras Utkus returns from suspension, but Kucys and Kipras Kazukolovas miss out through injury.

Conclusion

Finland, ranked 74 places higher, know only a win will suffice to keep their World Cup hopes intact.

Lithuania have shown signs of progress, but the hosts’ greater depth and urgency should see them secure three vital points in Helsinki.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 23/50

Bookmaker: Luckster