Verdict: Total USA goals over 2.5
Best odds: 6/5
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
Gold Cup hosts USA are just one win from reaching the final as they gear up for a semi-final clash against surprise package Guatemala on Wednesday.
Both teams advanced from the quarterfinals via penalty shootouts, setting the stage for a tense and high-stakes encounter in St. Louis.
USA
Looking to reclaim their status as CONCACAF’s top team after falling short in their Gold Cup title defence two years ago, the United States moved one step closer to redemption with a dramatic quarter-final victory over Costa Rica last weekend.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side cruised through the group stage, racking up an 8-1 goal difference across wins against Saudi Arabia, Haiti, and Trinidad and Tobago. But they faced far more resistance in the knockout round in Minneapolis, where they had to dig deep to overcome Costa Rica in a tense affair.
The USMNT endured several setbacks—conceding an early penalty, missing one of their own, and allowing a late equaliser—before emerging victorious on penalties. Diego Luna and Max Arfsten both scored their first international goals in a 2-2 draw, and the Stars and Stripes held their nerve in the shootout, with Matt Freese making three crucial saves and Damion Downs converting the decisive kick.
With no extra time played in the competition until the final, the match went straight to spot kicks. Now undefeated in the tournament, the U.S. will meet Guatemala in the semi-finals on Wednesday, knowing a win in St. Louis will earn them a place in Sunday’s final against either Mexico or Honduras.
This marks the 17th time the United States have reached the Gold Cup semi-finals, including a run of 13 straight appearances since 2000. Despite fielding a weakened squad this summer, expectations remain high for Pochettino, particularly after a disappointing fourth-place finish in the recent CONCACAF Nations League.
Team News
Several key players—including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna, Yunus Musah, and Antonee Robinson—are absent due to injuries or Club World Cup duty, forcing the coach to reshape his lineup.
In their absence, Malik Tillman and Patrick Agyemang have formed an effective strike partnership, while Arfsten and Luna have each registered three goal involvements to become standout contributors.
Johnny Cardoso, recently signed by Atletico Madrid, has barely featured due to an ankle issue and remains a doubt for the semis. As a result, Tyler Adams and Luca de la Torre are expected to anchor midfield in Pochettino’s preferred 4-2-3-1 setup.
Veteran centre-back Tim Ream, with a squad-high 73 caps, is likely to marshal the back line ahead of goalkeeper Matt Freese, whose heroics against Costa Rica have solidified his place as the team’s new number one.
Guatemala
While the tournament hosts have their sights set on lifting the trophy and building momentum for next year’s World Cup, Guatemala are relishing the moment as unexpected semi-finalists at the 2025 Gold Cup.
Luis Fernando Tena’s side scraped into the knockout stage by finishing second in Group C, edging Guadeloupe 3-2 in a nervy finale after a win over Jamaica and a defeat to Panama. That result secured Guatemala back-to-back quarter-final appearances for the first time this century and just their fourth overall at that stage since 2000.
Having fallen at the last-eight hurdle on each of those previous occasions, La Azul y Blanco finally made the breakthrough by stunning Canada in a penalty shootout on Sunday. They capitalised on a key moment when their opponents were reduced to 10 men in first-half stoppage time. Rubio Rubin cancelled out Jonathan David’s opener, and the tie went to penalties, where Guatemala held their nerve—converting five of six spot-kicks to claim a 6-5 win.
Now aiming to take down another regional powerhouse, Guatemala face a daunting challenge: they’ve lost four of their last five matches against the United States, conceding 17 goals during that run.
Team News
Tena’s lineup for their first semi-final since 1996 will include several familiar faces to American fans, such as D.C. United full-back Aaron Herrera and striker Rubio Rubin, who was born in Oregon but switched international allegiance in 2022.
However, they’ll be without Columbus Crew goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen, who has been ruled out for the rest of the tournament due to injury. Kenderson Navarro, who deputized in the quarterfinal, is set to start once again in St. Louis.
Conclusion
Despite fielding a depleted squad, the USA have displayed encouraging signs of cohesion and resilience throughout their home Gold Cup campaign, and they are well positioned to secure a place in the final.
Facing a Guatemala side that has managed just one win inside 90 minutes so far, the hosts should have enough quality and depth to overcome the underdogs, whose impressive run is likely to end in St. Louis.
Verdict: Total USA goals over 2.5
Best odds: 6/5
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
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