Women´s Super League predictions: Can Arsenal stop runaway leaders Man City?

The question on everyone’s mind is, can anyone stop Women’s Super League leaders Manchester City?

Andree Jeglertz’s side appear to be cruising to their first top-flight title since 2016 after opening up an 11-point gap over the rest of the pack by thumping Chelsea last time out.

However, their title tilt will once again be best tested this weekend as they travel to Emirates Stadium to take on European champions Arsenal in the standout clash on MD15.

There are plenty of intriguing ties at both ends of the division, with Manchester United taking on Leicester City while Tottenham face Chelsea in an eye-catching London derby.

Liverpool will be aiming to close the gap to West Ham at the bottom of the standings with a win over Aston Villa, while the Hammers entertain Brighton.

London City Lionesses square off against Everton, but who does the Opta supercomputer predict will be this weekend’s winners and losers? Let’s find out.

Plenty of exciting #BarclaysWSL fixtures taking place this weekend pic.twitter.com/5l8bitBrUZ

— Barclays Women’s Super League (@BarclaysWSL) February 5, 2026

LEICESTER CITY V MANCHESTER UNITED

The weekend’s action kickstarts at King Power Stadium on Saturday as struggling Leicester City, who have had an extended rest, take on title-chasing Manchester United.

Leicester were due to face Arsenal last Saturday, but the Gunners’ involvement in the Champions Cup, a competition that they won, saw the game rearranged for a later date.

United, meanwhile, beat rivals Liverpool 3-1 thanks to Lisa Naalsund’s brace. It was a result that saw them jump up to second in the WSL, and they are expected to win again here, at least according to the Opta supercomputer.

Across its 10,000 data-led simulations, the Red Devils emerged victorious in 71.2% of those outcomes, compared to Leicester’s measly win probability of just 12.7%.

That could be down to United’s recent displays against the Foxes, given they have a perfect four wins from four record away from home in the WSL against Leicester, keeping a clean sheet in each of their last three.

In addition, United have won their last two league games, last winning more consecutively during a seven-game run between December 2024 and March 2025. Since then, the Red Devils have won two league games in a row on three separate occasions, but have then failed to score in their next match each time (D2 L1).

Leicester, meanwhile, have lost eight of their nine WSL games against United, with the only exception being a 1-1 away draw in October 2023 under Willie Kirk.

And their troubles this season have been at the top end of the pitch. Leicester are the lowest scorers in the top-flight this season with eight goals. The Foxes have not scored more than once in any of their 13 games, with only three teams going on a longer run without doing so from the start of a WSL campaign.

WEST HAM V BRIGHTON

West Ham face Brighton in one of four early games on Sunday, with both teams looking to kickstart their respective campaigns after falling to defeat in their last league match.

The Hammers lost 2-1 to rivals Tottenham, while Freya Godfrey’s strike in first-half stoppage time helped the London City Lionesses to a 2-1 win away to the Seagulls.

However, this fixture has been dominated by this weekend’s visitors. Brighton have won eight of their last 11 WSL games against West Ham (D1 L2) and could complete a league double over the Hammers for the fourth time after the 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 campaigns.

West Ham are, however, looking to win consecutive WSL home games against Brighton for the first time following a 3-1 victory in this fixture last season. Their last home loss to the Seagulls in the league came in November 2022, becoming the only team to score four times at home and still lose in the WSL (4-5).

And the supercomputer struggled to split the two teams, with West Ham’s assigned win probability of 38.2% only slightly higher than Brighton’s 35.4% chance of victory. The likelihood of a draw sits at 26.5%.

But one player who could swing the game in her team’s favour is Brighton’s Kiko Seike.

She has been directly involved in four of Brighton’s last five WSL goals (three goals, two assists) and has the most goal involvements of any Seagulls’ player this term (seven – five goals, two assists). Only Elisabeth Terland (21) and Aileen Whelan (18) have more goal involvements for the club in the WSL than Seike (17).

LONDON CITY LIONESSES V EVERTON

The big news coming into MD15 came from Everton, who sacked manager Brian Sorensen just days after leading the Toffees to their first home win of the season.

Sorensen, who had been in charge of Everton since 2022, won 24 of his 80 games in charge (D16 L40) and has been replaced by Everton’s Under-18s coach Scott Phelan for the rest of the season.

9 – Everton have lost nine of their 14 Women’s Super League matches this season (W3 D2), the Toffees’ most defeats at this stage of a WSL campaign since 2018/19 (also 9). Departure. pic.twitter.com/hK0awBMf4K

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) February 4, 2026

And Phelan’s first task will see his side make the trip to Copperjax Community Stadium to face London City Lionesses, who come into the game with confidence after beating Brighton last time out, a result that moved them up to sixth in the table.

Indeed, London City now boast six wins this season – in WSL history, only West Ham in 2018-19 and Man United in 2019-20 have picked up more victories as a newly promoted side (both seven).

Eder Maestre’s side are expected to add to their win tally this season, with the supercomputer handing them a 49.2% chance of victory compared to Everton’s 25.2%.

London City’s first-ever win in the WSL came at Goodison Park against Everton last September, winning 2-1 thanks to an Izzy Goodwin brace.

But following victory on MD14, Everton will be aiming to win back-to-back matches in the WSL for the first time since December 2023. Only Leicester (October 2023) are on a longer wait for consecutive victories in the competition among current teams.

LIVERPOOL V ASTON VILLA

After picking up their first win of the season, Liverpool were brought back down to reality by rivals Man Utd, losing at Progress with Unity Stadium, but they will be hoping to get their survival bid back on track against Aston Villa.

Despite drawing the first three in the run, Liverpool are unbeaten in each of their last four WSL home games (W1) – only once in their WSL history have the Reds had a longer unbeaten streak on home soil (six between August 2013 and May 2014).

However, Liverpool have lost two of their three WSL home games against Villa (W1), losing 2-1 in this fixture last season, and Natalia Arroyo’s team are out for a response.

After losing to Everton last time out, the Villans are now looking to avoid suffering three successive defeats for the first time this season. Indeed, the last time that they went on a longer losing streak in the competition was between January and March last year (six).

Villa have also lost five of their last seven WSL games (W2), only one fewer defeat than they suffered across their first 17 league matches under Arroyo (W7 D4 L6). They could lose four consecutive away games in the top-flight for the first time under the same manager.

The supercomputer has had its say, and it has sided with Liverpool, assigning them a 42.6% win probability, marginally higher than Villa’s 30.7%. A draw happened in 26.7% of those simulations.

Despite being considered the underdogs, Villa have won their last two league meetings with Liverpool, following a 3-0 success in the reverse fixture in December, and will be aiming to complete a WSL double over the Reds for the first time.

ARSENAL V MANCHESTER CITY

The weekend’s action is headlined by Arsenal’s top-of-the-table clash with runaway leaders Manchester City, with Jeglertz’s side edging ever closer to lifting the WSL title.

A Kerolin hat-trick saw the Citizens sweep aside champions Chelsea 5-1 last time out, with Vivianne Miedema and Khadija Shaw also getting themselves on the scoresheet.

Indeed, Kerolin became the first player in WSL history to score a hat-trick against the reigning champions. She has scored (six) or assisted (three) in her last six league outings and is averaging a goal involvement every 42 minutes this term, the best rate of any player in a single campaign in the competition’s history (minimum 300 minutes played).

Arsenal, meanwhile, were involved in the inaugural Champions Cup, where they emerged 3-2 victors over Brazilian side Corinthians thanks to Caitlin Foord’s extra-time winner.

Despite 13 points separating the two teams in the table, the supercomputer finds this match hard to predict. Renee Slegers’ team won 37.3% of the pre-match simulations, slightly higher than City’s 36.3% win probability.

Arsenal vs Man City is the most-played fixture in WSL history (24 times), where both sides have recorded the exact same number of wins (11 each, D2). The Gunners lost each of their first three home games against the Citizens in the league, but have since won six of eight matches, losing only once (D1).

The Citizens beat Arsenal 3-2 in the reverse fixture back in October and will now be aiming to complete a league double over the Gunners for the first time since the 2020-21 season (2-1 home and away).

Arsenal beat reigning champions Chelsea last time out on MD13, but have not won back-to-back WSL matches, with both coming against sides that finished the previous campaign in the top-four positions since October 2018 (beat champions Chelsea and fourth-place Reading).

And the game will pit the division’s tightest defence against its fiercest attack. City lead the 2025-26 WSL for shots (272), shots on target (105), goals (41), shot conversion rate (15.1%), xG (39.4) and big chances (70).

Arsenal, meanwhile, have kept a clean sheet in three of their last five league games, and could keep three in a row for the first time since January 2025 (five in a row). The Gunners have also only faced two or fewer shots on target in each of their last five WSL games.

TOTTENHAM V CHELSEA

The weekend’s action concludes with a London derby between Tottenham and Chelsea at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with the Blues and Sonia Bompastor out for redemption.

After humbling defeats to Arsenal and Man City, Chelsea have lost back-to-back WSL games for the first time since July 2015, while they last had a longer losing run in the league when losing their final six matches of the 2013 campaign.

Chelsea have also dropped points in six different WSL games this season (D3 L3), their most times in a campaign since the 2018-19 season (eight times – D6 L2). Since MD8 in November last year, only Liverpool (seven), Everton (six) and Leicester (four) have won fewer points in the top-flight than the Blues (eight – P7 W2 D2 L3).

And they come up against a Spurs side who have won eight of their 14 league games this season (D2 L4). They could record nine victories in a single WSL campaign for only the second time after the 2021-22 season (also eight in 2023-24).

However, Spurs have lost each of their 12 WSL meetings with Chelsea, the most times one side has faced another in the competition without winning a single point.

In addition, Chelsea have won each of their 17 games against Spurs across all competitions in the WSL era by an aggregate score of 47-10, including all seven away from home.

And, given the Blues’ superiority in this fixture, it is no surprise to see the supercomputer side with Bompastor’s team this weekend.

Chelsea are handed a whopping 71.9% chance of victory in its 10,000 data-led simulations. Spurs, meanwhile, are assigned a win probability of just 12.4%, while their hopes of taking a point are ranked slightly higher at 15.7%.