Cameroon boss Pagou insists Morocco are favourites for AFCON showdown

Cameroon coach David Pagou insists Morocco are favourites for Friday’s Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final tussle, though he sees the chance to eliminate the hosts as an extra source of motivation.

Pagou’s team will take on the Atlas Lions in Rabat for the opportunity to face either Algeria or Nigeria in the semi-finals next week.

The Indomitable Lions last lifted the trophy in 2017, though that is their only successful campaign since winning back-to-back editions in 2000 and 2002, while Morocco’s only title came all the way back in 1976.

Both teams took seven points from three games in the groups, with Morocco then edging out Tanzania 1-0 in the last 16 and Cameroon overcoming South Africa by a 2-1 scoreline.

Morocco’s less-than-stellar performances have attracted criticism from some supporters, but given they finished fourth at the World Cup just over three years ago, Pagou believes all the pressure is on the hosts.

“Morocco are the natural favourites,” Pagou said, as quoted by Sports le 360.

“They were World Cup semi-finalists. It will be a very difficult match against a very good team. We will try to challenge them.

“What characterises Cameroonians is their courage, even when there’s a mountain to overcome. It’s the mental strength that makes the difference.

“It’s a quarter-final against the host country, which has very strong individual players and a high-performing team. Morocco haven’t lost at home for a very long time. That is an extra motivation. It will be a mental battle.”

Morocco boss Walid Regragui is not fazed by the criticism he has received over the past few weeks, however, pointing out that many tournament victors start slowly.

“We are still thinking the same way and have confidence in what we are doing,” he told reporters.

“This is a tournament that requires staying grounded, even if people do not want to understand that. When you see the results and all the strong teams that have progressed, you realise what you are up against.”

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Cameroon – Carlos Baleba

Baleba has won 67% of his duels so far at the Africa Cup of Nations (18/27), the best ratio of any player for Cameroon (minimum 10 contested).

Against South Africa in the round of 16, the Brighton man won 10 of his 11 duels (90.9%), the best duel success rate for a Cameroon player in the competition (minimum 10 contested) since Aurelien Chedjou against Ivory Coast in 2015 (100%, 10/10).

Your #TotalEnergiesAFCON2025 team of the group stage is here!#WePlayDifferent pic.twitter.com/7pOJ45TVF5

— Total Energies Afcon2025 Updates (@TotalAFCON2025) January 2, 2026

Morocco – Brahim Diaz

Brahim has scored in each of Morocco’s four games at this Africa Cup of Nations, with his four goals already the most by a Moroccan player at a single edition of the competition.

Indeed, only Ahmed Faras (six) and Youssef En-Nesyri (five) have scored more times for them at the tournament overall.

MATCH PREDICTION: MOROCCO WIN

Cameroon are unbeaten against Morocco at the African Cup of Nations (W2 D1), with this their first meeting in the competition since the Indomitable Lions managed a 1-0 victory in the group stage in 1992.

Indeed, only against Tunisia (D2 L2) have Morocco played more matches against a nation without winning at AFCON than their three against Cameroon.

Their only previous encounter in the knockout stages came in the 1988 semi-finals, when the Atlas Lions lost 1-0 to a Cyrille Makanaky goal in the 78th minute.

But it could be time for them to break this hoodoo. No side has conceded fewer goals at this tournament so far than Morocco (one), who are yet to trail at the tournament, while their highest expected goals against (xGA) figure in a game so far came against Mali on matchday two (0.9).

And Morocco should dominate possession, having had over 55% of the ball in four of their games thus far.

Cameroon’s highest figure came against Ivory Coast in the group stage (49.3%), and the 22 open-play sequences of 10 or more passes that Morocco completed in the last 16 against Tanzania are more than Cameroon have completed across the entire tournament (17).

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Cameroon – 30%

Morocco – 44.7%

Draw – 25.3%