Sunday, March 3, 2024

How to win over/under 2.5 goals football bets

Stefan Budur in Soccer Betting Strategies 16 Oct 2023


I wrote this article to explain how to win Over/Under 2.5 goals football bets in a few simple steps.

The over/under 2.5 goals football bet is the most popular one when you consider betting on the goals market.

To win over/under 2.5 goals football bets you need to predict how many goals will be scored during the match. Which team will score the goals is irrelevant!

Check out our easy-to-understand tutorial if you want to know what over means when betting on the goals market.

How to win over 2.5 goals football bets

To win over 2.5 goals football bets you need at least 3 goals to be scored during the 90 minutes of the game, regardless of which team will score the goals.

Bet on attacking teams

The likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Barcelona, and Real Madrid to name a few, will always score many goals against their opponents.

These top teams play attacking football, leaving open spaces for their opponents to score as well. Both teams scoring will increase the chances of your over 2.5 goals scored bet to turn out a winner. The bookies know these facts as well which is why they will price short the Over 2.5 goals market.

So how do we find value?

Let’s have a look.

Atletico Madrid played against Real Sociedad at Wanda Metropolitano. This fixture is already considered a top 4 derby. The bookmakers made a mistake, neglecting both teams’ incredible form before the match, pricing high the Over 2.5 goals market (see below).

Atletico Madrid - Real Soiedad over 2.5 goals odds

Let’s break down why Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad was a good choice for over 2.5 goals.

Atletico Madrid pulled a difficult win at home with in-form Real Sociedad. A quick analysis indicates that Atleti won all of their home games with over 2.5 goals being scored in those matches.

Besides Real Madrid, the less valuable teams like Granada and Cadiz exposed Diego Simeone’s defense by scoring at Wanda Metropolitano. Real Sociedad on the other hand scored 14 goals in their last 5 games. Their confidence was also boosted after a 3-0 home win against eternal rivals, Athletic Bilbao.

Find high-scoring football leagues

We all know that betting on Dutch top-flight and German Bundesliga will significantly increase your chances of winning over 2.5-goal bets. These 2 competitions consistently rank high every season in the average goals scored per game chart. Argentina and Brazil find themselves on the opposite spectrum. Many teams put on a disappointing show for their fans averaging consistently under 2.5 goals per game.

Let’s illustrate over 2.5 goals with a few examples from Eredivisie.

Dutch top-flight over 2.5 goals stats

The Dutch top flight has a staggering 67.1% of the games played with over 2.5 goals after 8 rounds being played.

Feyenoord, PSV and Ajax could put some serious money in your pocket if you back their matches on the over 2.5 goals. Because the bookies are also aware of these stats they will always price short your selection. A good strategy will be to add these games and build an Acca. I will recommend a double or a treble to increase your final odds and still keep a good chance of winning.

How to win under 2.5 goals football bets

To win under 2.5 goals football bets you need less than 3 goals to be scored during the 90 minutes of the game, regardless of which team will score the goals.

Bet on low goal-scoring teams

Otelul from Romania’s SuperLiga is one of the lowest goals-scoring teams in the Ligue. A staggering 83/% of their matches have less than 3 goals scored. The team from Galati is displaying a repeating pattern. The bookies are well aware of this fact and will always price very short Otelul in the under 2.5 goals market. Hosting the goal-scoring machine team of Rapid was the value bet in this case. At the price of 1.7 for under 2.5 goals scored in the match, this was pure gold considering Otelul’s home display.

Bookmakers took into account only Rapid’s high average goals scoring stats, disregarding Otelul Galati’s very low number of goals scored. Let’s find out why Otelul-Rapid was an easy pick to bag some money.

Otelul and Rapid are the exact opposites if we look at the statistics. Otelul had 6 out of 8 games played with under 2.5 goals scored. Rapid is mirroring these results having 6 out of 8, over 2.5 goals scored. Also, a key factor is the home-away results of both teams. Dorinel Munteanu’s team had 75% of their home matches under 2.5 goals scored. On the contrary, Cristiano Bergodi and his players scored more than 2 goals in only 25% of their games played away.

Find low-scoring football leagues

The opposite of Eredivisie is Liga Profesional, the top-flight from Argentina (see below).

Only 33.1% of the matches ended up over 2.5 goals, leaving 66.9% of games with less than 2 goals scored at the final whistle. Backing San Lorenzo’s games during the entire season, in the under 2.5 goals market would have made you a fortune. The Crows had 23 games from 27 with less than 3 goals being scored in the match. Thanks to statistics you can apply the same strategy as for the over  2.5 goals scored. Besides San Lorenzo, you have a lot of teams that you can add to your accumulator.

Use in-play (live) betting to get higher odds. PSV’s 4-0 victory away at Sparta Rotterdam was priced at 1.42 pre-match. At halftime, the score was 0-0. Wagering money on over 2.5 goals at the start of the 2nd half would have given you a higher return. The same goes for an Under 2.5 goals bet.

Top tips to win over/under 2.5 goals football bets.

  • Find high-scoring football leagues (over 2.5 goals).
  • Bet on attacking teams (over 2.5 goals).
  • Find low-scoring football leagues (under 2.5 goals).
  • Bet on defending teams (under 2.5 goals).
  • Use live betting to get higher odds.

Track all your bets by using an Excel spreadsheet. Give yourself feedback after each bet and try to eliminate the mistakes you made. Manage your bankroll like a professional by testing any betting strategy you will use. Allow yourself at least 5-6 consecutive losses without losing your entire bankroll and remember to always gamble responsibly!


Stefan Budur

Former owner of Betting Mojo, experienced bettor and former punter at Betadvisor, Stefan has done it all when it comes to soccer betting. With more than 15 years of experience in the gambling industry, he gained a lot of knowledge that he'd like to share with readers so you can position yourself better every time you place a bet.



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