Prediction: Benfica vs AS Monaco

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 5/6

Bookmaker: Olympusbet

With a Champions League last-16 spot against either Barcelona or Liverpool at stake, Benfica and Monaco face off in the second leg of their play-off clash on Tuesday night at the Estadio da Luz.

The Portuguese giants hold a slender advantage after securing a 1-0 win at the Stade Louis II last week. Now, they return home to take on a Monaco side dealing with multiple suspensions, adding further challenges to their hopes of overturning the deficit.

Benfica

Finding the net for the sixth time in the 2024-25 Champions League, Benfica’s prolific Greek forward Vangelis Pavlidis showcased his composure with a deft chip over Monaco goalkeeper Radoslaw Majecki, securing a narrow first-leg victory in the Principality.

Bruno Lage’s side also benefited from Monaco midfielder Al-Musrati’s costly dismissal, as the 27-year-old received a second yellow card for theatrically demanding one for an opponent. Riding a wave of strong form, Benfica are flourishing both domestically and in Europe.

Their win over Monaco was part of a five-game winning streak across all competitions, including a 1-0 Primeira Liga triumph over Santa Clara at the weekend, courtesy of Bruma’s strike. However, they remain in pursuit of Sporting Lisbon at the league summit.

Benfica now seek six consecutive victories for the first time since January 2024, and their recent attacking exploits at the Estadio da Luz suggest they are well-equipped to achieve it. Lage’s men have netted at least three goals in each of their last four home fixtures, though their defensive frailties were exposed in a chaotic 5-4 loss to Barcelona in the group stage, highlighting their inconsistent Champions League home form—winning just one of their last eight games in the competition.

Team News

While Monaco lost holding midfielder Al-Musrati to a red card in the first leg, Benfica will now be without their own midfield anchor, as Florentino is suspended after accumulating three Champions League yellow cards.

Adding to their woes, both Angel Di Maria and Tomas Araujo picked up injuries in the first leg. Di Maria was introduced as a substitute for Araujo but had to be withdrawn himself due to a muscular issue, and neither is expected to recover in time for Tuesday’s clash.

The duo joins a growing injury list that includes Alexander Bah (ACL), Fredrik Aursnes (knee), Manu Silva (ACL), and Renato Sanches (muscle). Furthermore, Benfica will be unable to call on Bruma, their goal scorer from the weekend, as he is serving a European suspension carried over from his time at Braga, when he was sent off against Union SG in the Europa League.

Monaco

Benfica’s Champions League home struggles may seem minor in comparison to Monaco’s dreadful away form over the winter months. Adi Hutter’s men have suffered four consecutive defeats on the road and have won just one of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.

That sole victory came against lower-tier Union Saint-Jean in the Coupe de France, and Les Monegasques now risk going three successive Champions League away games without scoring for the first time since 2014—when the third game in that streak was a 1-0 loss to none other than Benfica.

However, Monaco rediscovered their scoring touch in emphatic fashion on Saturday, dismantling Nantes 7-1 at the Stade Louis II in Ligue 1. Despite falling behind in the fourth minute, Hutter’s side ran riot after their opponents were reduced to 10 men.

January signing Mika Biereth stole the show with a stunning hat-trick—his second since joining from Austrian side Sturm Graz. The young Scandinavian’s clinical form may leave Arsenal, who allowed him to depart their academy last year, wondering what might have been.

Biereth’s sharp finishing will be crucial if Monaco are to overturn their deficit in Portugal. However, history is firmly against them—should they fail to progress, they will have faced Benfica five times in European competition without ever winning, more than against any other club.

Team News

Al-Musrati’s needless red card in the first leg means he serves a one-game suspension, while Adi Hutter must also navigate the absences of Denis Zakaria and Vanderson, both of whom accumulated too many yellow cards last Wednesday.

On a positive note, Christian Mawissa returns from suspension after missing the first-leg defeat. However, Monaco have suffered another injury setback, with Aleksandr Golovin ruled out due to an adductor issue. He joins Jordan Teze (unspecified) and Folarin Balogun (shoulder) on the sidelines.

With both Vanderson and Teze unavailable, Thilo Kehrer is likely to shift to right-back, while Takumi Minamino could force his way into the starting XI after an outstanding display against Nantes, where he scored once and provided two assists.

Conclusion

Monaco must adopt an all-out attacking approach to keep their Champions League hopes alive, with Biereth leading the charge against a depleted Benfica side. The visitors will look to exploit their hosts’ absences, but Hutter’s squad is also significantly weakened in midfield, which could leave them vulnerable.

As a result, Benfica should be able to match Monaco’s intensity and ultimately edge an end-to-end battle to secure their spot in the next round.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 5/6

Bookmaker: Olympusbet