Prediction: Hamburger SV vs St. Pauli

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 9/4

Bookmaker: Olympusbet

Both sides are still searching for their first victory of the Bundesliga campaign, as 11th-placed Hamburger SV host ninth-placed St Pauli at the Volksparkstadion on Friday.

Hamburg opened with a goalless draw against Borussia Monchengladbach on August 24, leaving them on the same points as their city rivals, who played out a 3-3 thriller with Borussia Dortmund a day earlier.

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV head into Friday’s derby looking for their first league win of the campaign, having shown defensive resilience in their 0-0 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach. After allowing several dangerous first-half chances, Merlin Polzin’s men tightened up after the break, restricting their opponents to just two efforts inside the box from open play.

The Red Shorts began their season with a 2-1 DFB-Pokal win at Pirmasens, but consistency has been lacking: just two clean sheets in their past eight competitive outings highlight ongoing defensive concerns. Their form across recent months has also been patchy, with four pre-season defeats followed by just two wins in their last six fixtures of 2024/25.

Hamburg have struggled at home recently, losing two of their last four matches at the Volksparkstadion and winning just once, while conceding seven goals.

Hamburger have not faced St Pauli in the Bundesliga since 2011, but in nine encounters this decade they hold the upper hand in recent clashes, with two wins and a draw in the last three meetings. Now, they aim to build momentum in front of their home fans against their city rivals.

Team News

Defenders Warmed Omari, Daniel Elfadli and Jordan Torunarigha impressed against Gladbach and should continue as starters.

In midfield, Nicolai Remberg and Nicolas Capaldo are expected to partner up with Immanuel Pherai unavailable, while winger Bakery Jatta’s thigh issue leaves Emir Sahiti likely to keep his spot on the right.

St. Pauli

St Pauli arrive at the Volksparkstadion with renewed confidence after fighting back from two goals down to hold Borussia Dortmund 3-3 on the opening weekend. Danel Sinani’s late strike and Eric Smith’s thunderous effort capped a spirited comeback, marking a sharp contrast to last season’s 2-0 defeat in the same fixture. Encouragingly, the three goals scored matched their tally from the final five Bundesliga games of 2024/25, when their attack was among the league’s weakest with just 28 goals all season.

While their scoring woes held them back, the Kiezkicker’s strength lay in defence. Under Alexander Blessin, they ended last season with the second-best defensive record in the Bundesliga, conceding only 41 goals – a figure bettered solely by champions Bayern Munich. That solid foundation continues to be key, as shown by their summer run of four wins and a draw from five friendlies. They also advanced past Eintracht Norderstedt in the DFB-Pokal, though only via penalties after a goalless draw.

St Pauli’s resilience on the road last spring offers further optimism; they lost just once in their final five Bundesliga away matches, winning one and drawing the rest.

Team News

For Friday’s clash, defensive regulars Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, and Adam Dzwigala should form a back three, with David Nemeth sidelined. James Sands and Joel Chima Fujita are expected to anchor midfield, while Sinani could be pushed forward to provide more attacking spark.

In attack, Mathias Pereira Lage and Andreas Hountondji led the line against Dortmund and will hope to continue their partnership as Blessin’s men seek to earn derby bragging rights.

Conclusion

St Pauli’s defensive stability deserted them in their opener against Dortmund, and a repeat of that fragility on Friday could see them punished again. At the same time, Hamburger’s form at the Volksparkstadion has been inconsistent, while the visitors have shown a knack for frustrating opponents on their travels.

With both sides still searching for their first league win of the new campaign, a hard-fought draw appears the most likely outcome.

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 9/4

Bookmaker: Olympusbet