Friday, April 26, 2024

Prediction: Bournemouth vs Southampton

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best Odds: 10/11

Bookmaker: Bet365

On Sunday afternoon, Mauricio Pellegrino’s Saints will make the short journey to the Vitality Stadium where they face off against south coast rivals Bournemouth. With both sides loitering around the middle of the table, a win for either side could see them push into the top half of the table and give them some much-needed momentum heading into a busy Christmas period.

Bournemouth

Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth side will enter Sunday’s match knowing that if they can take three points off their south coast rivals, they will leapfrog the Saints in the league. Despite being unable to see off Burnley and Swansea in their last two appearances, the Cherries have found some form after a poor start to the season. Howe’s side are currently sat 15th in the table, four points clear of the drop zone, a win on Sunday and some favorable outcomes elsewhere could see Bournemouth break into the top half of the table.

Now an established Premier League side, the Cherries will know the importance of picking up points from the teams around them if they want to guarantee their third consecutive year in the top flight. Bournemouth’s Christmas schedule will see them play Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City all on the bounce. As for Sunday, Bournemouth will be desperate to improve on their recent record at the Vitality Stadium. Having lost four of their seven home matches already this year, only Swansea hold the worst home record in the top flight.

Team News

Eddie Howe will be left sweating over the fitness of forward Junior Stanislas. The 28-year-old has been sidelined since the end of October with a groin problem but will undergo a late fitness test.

Defenders Brad Smith and Tyrone Mings remain on the treatment table with respective hip and back problems.

Southampton

Although Southampton might be a side showing signs of life, the Saints are a side who have only managed to pick up one win in their last five attempts. For Mauricio Pellegrino’s side, they were moments away from becoming only the second team to take points off the runaway leaders on Wednesday night, and the red and whites will take comfort out of their performance. However, with a busy Christmas fast approaching, the Saints will know that they’re in desperate need of points if they want to push further away from the drop zone. With only two wins since the middle of September, finding the back of the net was Southampton’s problems at the start of the year.
With former QPR forward Charlie Austin now fully fit again, the Saints have looked more threatening in the final third. Their problems in front of goal this season can be epitomised by Irish forward Shane Long, the 30-year-old has now gone more than 30 games without a goal for club or country. Last weekend, Pellegrino’s side were able to put four past a struggling Everton side, Austin claiming two of them. On their travels away from St. Mary’s Southampton have managed to score in four of their last six away matches, but, the Saints on average are considering two goals a game at the moment.

Team News

After picking up a hamstring injury during their 2-1 defeat to Manchester City in midweek, Portuguese international right-back Cedric Soares will miss Sunday’s derby. Along with Cedric, Pellegrino looks unlikely to be able to call upon forward Shane Long, who has a calf strain.

Despite scoring twice against Everton last week, Charlie Austin who found himself on the bench on Wednesday is likely to return to the Saints XI.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bournemouth have won one and lost five of their last eight meetings against south coast rivals Southampton. That victory was a 2-0 home win in March 2016.
  • All four of Southampton’s league wins at Bournemouth have been by a 3-1 scoreline.
  • Bournemouth have lost four of their seven home league matches. Only Swansea, who have lost five, have been beaten on more occasions at their own ground.
  • Southampton have won just one of their last seven away league games on a Sunday (D4 L2), though this did come at Bournemouth in December last season (3-1).
  • Callum Wilson’s last five Premier League goals were all scored at Vitality Stadium.

 Conclusion

In recent weeks, both the south coast clubs have found some attacking form, both Callum Wilson and Charlie Austin have been in fine form since breaking into their respective starting XI’s. Although both sides have improved their attacking options, some defensive frailties are still far from resolved. With Bournemouth only keeping two clean sheets at Dean Court, coupled with Southampton shipping eight goals in their last four appearances, we suspect that both sides will have opportunities. Backing both sides to score at 10/11 looks like the most logical bet here.

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best Odds:  10/11

Bookmaker: Bet365

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Tom Dunstan


Formerly of The Independent, Tom has spent the past six years as one of our senior writers and betting experts. Alongside working with numerous publications from across the globe, Tom also graduated from the University of Falmouth in 2014 with a Bachelor of Arts Degree in Digital Media.
Spending almost the past decade working in countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada, he has also spent time featuring in sports radio. Tom can be followed on Instagram - @iamtomdunstan

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