Prediction: Atalanta vs Lazio

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 7/10

Bookmaker: Luckster

Atalanta BC and Lazio reconvene in Bergamo on Wednesday evening to conclude their Coppa Italia semi‑final, with the tie delicately poised after a thrilling 2–2 draw in the first leg.

Following that dramatic encounter at the Stadio Olimpico, the winner at the New Balance Arena will book a place in the final against either Inter Milan or Como.

Atalanta

The opening leg of this semi‑final delivered four goals after half‑time, setting the tone for what has become a finely balanced contest. Lazio twice took the lead through Fisayo Dele‑Bashiru and Boulaye Dia, only for Atalanta to respond swiftly on both occasions as Mario Pašalić and Yunus Musah dragged the tie level in Rome.

Since that encounter, Atalanta’s season has taken a turn. A humbling Champions League elimination at the hands of Bayern Munich was followed by another blow at the weekend, when their hopes of qualifying for next season’s competition suffered a major dent. Now nine points adrift of the Serie A top four, Raffaele Palladino’s side were held to a 1–1 draw by Roma at the Olimpico on Saturday, rescued only by several crucial saves from goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi.

There is little respite for La Dea, as they return home to face another Roman opponent in what Palladino has described as the club’s “most important match of the season.” While Atalanta have reached the Coppa Italia final three times in the past seven years, they were beaten on each occasion. This competition remains a realistic pathway to silverware and European qualification.

Their progress to this stage has been impressive. After thumping Genoa 4–0 in the round of 16, Atalanta gained revenge on Juventus for last year’s defeat by dismantling the Bianconeri 3–0 in the quarter‑finals. Despite their recent successes—including Europa League glory—Atalanta’s only Coppa Italia triumph dates back to 1963.

Team News

Palladino has brushed aside the idea of deploying two strikers together, meaning either Nikola Krstović or Gianluca Scamacca is set to lead the line. Scamacca has returned to training, and encouragingly for the hosts, Isak Hien and Kamaldeen Sulemana are also due back from injury.

That leaves Atalanta potentially with a clean bill of health, provided Giorgio Scalvini and Sead Kolašinac recover from minor knocks sustained against Roma.

Lazio

Lazio are targeting an eighth Coppa Italia triumph, having most recently lifted the trophy seven years ago—coincidentally after defeating Atalanta in the final. Their path to this year’s semi‑final included eliminating defending champions Bologna on penalties following a tense 1–1 draw, after previously knocking out AC Milan.

Those cup successes, however, have been rare highlights in a disappointing domestic campaign. Maurizio Sarri’s men currently sit ninth in Serie A and face the prospect of missing out on European qualification for a second consecutive season. Even a morale‑boosting victory over Napoli last week has not altered the wider picture significantly, with Lazio still seven points behind Atalanta, who occupy the final European place.

As a result, winning the Coppa Italia represents Lazio’s best route back into UEFA competition. To do that, they must finally overcome Atalanta after falling short three times already this season. Following a goalless league draw in Bergamo in October, Lazio were beaten 2–0 at home before settling for the 2–2 stalemate in the first leg of this semi‑final.

Atalanta’s home form complicates matters further. La Dea have lost only three of their 17 Serie A matches at the Gewiss‑New Balance Arena this season, making progression a difficult task for Sarri’s inconsistent side.

Team News

Adam Marušić and Nicolò Rovella remain unavailable, while first‑choice goalkeeper Ivan Provedel is sidelined alongside third‑choice Alessio Furlanetto. Mario Gila has returned to the squad, as has Daniel Maldini—currently on loan from Atalanta—though the forward remains short of full fitness.

With Maldini still a doubt, Sarri is likely to choose between Boulaye Dia and Tijjani Noslin to lead the attack, with Petar Ratkov considered an outside candidate for a starting berth.

Conclusion

Atalanta enter the second leg with greater attacking depth and momentum on home soil, but Lazio’s recent improvement suggests they could keep this contest alive deep into the night. Extra time remains a genuine possibility in what has already proven to be a finely balanced tie.

Ultimately, however, urged on by a crowd now accustomed to decisive midweek cup nights, Atalanta may possess just enough quality and composure to edge past Lazio and book another Coppa Italia final appearance.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 7/10

Bookmaker: Luckster