Sunday, March 3, 2024

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05

Verdict: Total goals under 2.5 and both teams to score – No

Best odds: 12/5

Bookmaker: BetUS

Heading into their last Bundesliga match of December, Borussia Dortmund, yet to secure a win this month, seek to conclude 2023 with a triumph against the struggling Mainz 05 on Tuesday at the Signal Iduna Park.

As they approach the end of the calendar year, Dortmund find themselves trailing behind the top four in the German top flight, while Mainz continue to grapple within the relegation zone.

Borussia Dortmund

After a stretch of merely one victory in eight matches, Borussia Dortmund eagerly anticipates the upcoming winter break, despite their noteworthy performances in the Champions League this season.

Under Edin Terzic’s guidance, the team triumphed in the ‘Group of Death’, culminating in a draw against Paris Saint-Germain in their last fixture. However, their Bundesliga form has been less impressive, as evidenced by their recent 1-1 draw against Augsburg on Saturday.

Even though Donyell Malen equalized for BVB after they fell behind in Bavaria, the match concluded in a stalemate, largely due to Augsburg goalkeeper Finn Dahmen’s astute saves thwarting Dortmund’s attempts at a second-half winner.

Last season’s Bundesliga runners-up now head back to the Signal Iduna Park to wrap up their busy 2023 schedule against the club that essentially prevented them from clinching the title last May. A 2-2 draw with Mainz allowed Bayern Munich to swoop in and secure the top spot on the final day of the season.

Consequently, Die Schwarzgelben are determined to break a five-game winless streak, having exited the DFB-Pokal and fallen 13 points behind the dominant league leaders, Bayer Leverkusen.

Team News

Following a suspension over the weekend, Mats Hummels is set to rejoin the Dortmund squad on Tuesday, potentially displacing Niklas Sule in the central defence.

Julian Ryerson remains sidelined due to a knee injury, but Marius Wolf has recently regained fitness and could contend with Thomas Meunier for a starting position on the right defensive flank.

In the absence of Karim Adeyemi, Youssoufa Moukoko, and Felix Nmecha, BVB manager Edin Terzic is expected to once again rely on Niclas Fullkrug as the frontman, likely receiving support from Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Donyell Malen. Fullkrug has amassed 10 goal contributions in the Bundesliga this season, trailing behind midfielder Julian Brandt by just one.

Mainz 05

Before the pivotal match for Dortmund, Mainz had suffered four consecutive defeats in league encounters between the two teams, which share a connection through former employers of German coaching icons Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel.

Currently, Mainz head north after enduring their eighth loss of the season, a 1-0 setback against promoted Heidenheim last Saturday. Despite Mainz dominating possession and shots, Heidenheim secured their maiden Bundesliga away victory at the MEWA Arena.

Consequently, the Nullfunfers have failed to secure a victory in five matches since their stunning win against RB Leipzig at the beginning of November. However, interim coach Jan Siewert has contributed to tightening their defensive play.

Despite being undefeated in five away fixtures, all resulting in draws and only conceding three goals, Mainz has earned one more point on the road than at home. Yet, their struggle to find the net impedes their ability to turn draws into wins.

With just one goal scored in their last five matches, Siewert’s team faces an uphill battle to secure an away victory, especially considering their last win on the road was in April, even though Dortmund hasn’t been performing at their peak lately.

Team News

Siewert will likely welcome the upcoming winter break as an opportunity to address a substantial absence list that has significantly limited his options recently. The absence of key players includes first-choice goalkeeper Robin Zentner, sidelined until next year due to a finger injury, along with Anthony Caci and Leandro Barreiro, both unavailable.

Additionally, Joshua Guilavogui, Andreas Hanche-Olsen, and Maxim Leitsch are all receiving treatment for their respective injuries. However, Edimilson Fernandes and captain Silvan Widmer are hopeful of featuring in the Dortmund match, with the latter recovering from illness.

In the meantime, Karim Onisiwo aims to replace the struggling striker Ludovic Ajorque in the forward position. Ajorque has only managed to score once in the league this season.


Concluding a turbulent year marked by a disappointing title loss but also surprising achievements in Europe, Borussia Dortmund is expected to clinch a win against Mainz 05, a team struggling to score goals. This victory would offer a measure of retribution for their last-day setback in May.

Dortmund will likely find the back of the net at least once, and despite their unsteady defence, they are predicted to withstand the challenge posed by the Bundesliga’s second-weakest attacking side.

Verdict: Total goals under 2.5 and both teams to score – No

Best odds: 12/5

Bookmaker: BetUS


Veselin Trajkovic

Vesko is a football writer that likes to observe the game for what it is, focusing on teams, players and their roles, formations, tactics, rather than stats. He follows the English Premier League closely, Liverpool FC in particular. His articles have been published on seven different football blogs.



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