Friday, March 5, 2021

Prediction: Brighton vs Derby

Tom Dunstan in FA Cup, Free Soccer Predictions 16 Feb 2019


Verdict: Both teams to score

Best Odds: 10/11

Bookmaker: Bet365

Derby will hope to get the better of more Premier League opposition as they travel to Brighton in the fifth round of the FA Cup this weekend.


Starting with the hosts, coming off the back of another very worrying display in their 3-1 loss at home to Burnley last weekend, Chris Hughton is arguably enduring his most difficult spell at Brighton. Taking a replay and extra time to come past another one of the Championship playoff contenders in West Brom, their victory at the Hawthorns is the Seagulls’ only victory in their last seven appearances. Now sat just three points above the drop zone and yet to win a match in 90 minutes since the 5th of January, the former Newcastle boss will be growing more concerned by his sides form in the final third. Brighton have failed to win any of their last four matches at the Amex and they have also scored just one goal on that run. If Saturday’s hosts are to book their spot in the quarterfinals, then fans around the Amex will be looking for leading goalscorer Glenn Murray to carry on his impressive run in this year’s FA Cup. Despite not starting in any of Brighton’s five previous Cup outings, the veteran striker has bagged four goals.

Team News

Brighton are without Florin Andone, who has been retrospectively banned for three games after elbowing Sam Field in the fourth-round replay at West Brom.

Fellow forward Solly March is a doubt with an ankle injury, but Jose Izquierdo is back in training following 10 weeks out with a knee problem.


As for the visitors, although Frank Lampard will be disappointed that his side could only pick up a point against relegation favourites Ipswich in midweek, Derby are enjoying a six-match unbeaten run across all competitions. Knocking Premier League outfit Southampton out of the Cup in the third round, the Whites also picked up a famous victory at Old Trafford earlier in the season. If the Rams are to book their spot in the quarterfinals for the first time since 1999, then Lampard will know that his men must end what has been a poor run of results against Saturday’s hosts. The Rams have failed to win any of their last five matches against Brighton, suffering a 3-0 defeat in the most recent encounter in the Championship in March 2017. While they might not have the best record on the South Coast, the former England midfielder will be looking for the inform Martyn Waghorn to carry on his own impressive FA Cup tally. The 29-year-old has now scored in both of Derby’s previous FA Cup appearances, including a goal at St. Mary’s last month.

Team News

Tom Lawrence is expected to start for Derby after returning from injury to score against Ipswich on Wednesday.

Midfielder Andy King, on loan from Leicester, is cup-tied.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Brighton have now recorded just one win in their last seven matches across all competitions.
  • Saturday’s hosts have also failed to win any of their four previous matches at the Amex.
  • Derby are currently enjoying a six-match unbeaten run and also knocked Southampton out of the FA Cup last month.
  • Brighton striker Glenn Murray has scored four goals in his last five FA Cup matches and also holds the best goal to minute ration in the tournament.
  • Derby forward marten Waghorn has also found the net in his last two FA Cup appearances.


On paper, both teams should see this is a golden opportunity to book their spot in the quarterfinals of this year’s FA Cup. While Brighton might hold the Premier League experince, Lampard will be looking to capatlize on the Seagulls’ on going defensive issues. With both Murray and Waghorn enjoying eye-catching runs in the tournament so far, we’re expecting a lively encounter at the Amex on Saturday lunchtime. Backing both teams to score at 10/11 seems like the smartest bet here.

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best Odds: 10/11

Bookmaker: Bet365


Tom Dunstan

Formerly of The Independent, Tom is a freelance football and boxing journalist from Essex, England. Currently working for three online publications, Tom is a graduate of the University of Falmouth and has spent the last two years writing across Australia, New Zealand and Asia. He can be followed at @IamTomDunstan



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