Friday, April 19, 2024

Prediction: Brighton vs Southampton

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals

Best Odds: 8/15

Bookmaker: Bet365

For our first dose of Sunday afternoon football, The Saints will be making the short journey to the Amex Stadium to face off with a revitalised Brighton side, with only two places and one point separating the two sides, both managers will know the importance of picking up three valuable points.

Brighton

After overcoming a difficult start to life among the top flight, Brighton have certainly managed to add some stability to their inaugural Premier League campaign. At the start of the year, Chris Hughton’s side failed to win any of their first three games of the season and the Seagulls were unable to find the back of the net in any of them fixtures.

Currently sat 12th in the table, Brighton will be entering Sunday afternoon’s contest coming off the back of an eye-catching 3-0 win away at West Ham last time out, Brighton have now only lost one game in their last four and have only conceded three goals this month, two of them coming at the Emirates.

One of the key factors in Brighton’s turnaround has been their impressive performances when playing at Amex Stadium. Despite the Seagulls struggling on the road prior to the West Ham game, Chris Houghton’s side have only lost once at home in all competitions this year, their only loss coming against Manchester City on the opening game of the season.

Team News

Brighton fans will also be happy to hear that Chris Houghton will now be able to recall top scorer Tomer Hemed, the forward will return to Brighton’s squad after serving a three-match ban. The Seagulls also look set to include Beram Kayal and Sam Baldock in their squad for the first time this season.

Brighton will, however, be without veteran midfielder Steve Sidwell who will be sidelined after picking up a minor injury.

Southampton

Like their hosts this weekend, Southampton will also be entering the contest coming off the back of a win last weekend. Last time out, Southampton came away with a 1-0 win over a struggling West Brom side. However, Southampton’s major problem this year has come in front of goal, The Saints have consistently struggled to find the back of the net, in their nine Premier League appearances this year, Southampton have only managed to score eight goals.

As for their recent run of form, the South Coast club have won just three of their nine league games, despite being unbeaten this month, Southampton only sit four points above the drop zone. Mauricio Pellegrino’s side have in fact been performing better when the Saint’s are away from St. Mary’s, Southampton have already picked up five wins away from home this year, one more than their tally at home.

After scoring four goals in their past three Premier League appearances, Southampton will know the importance of picking up some valuable points from the teams around them. Irish international Shane Long enters Sunday’s game without scoring a single goal in 27 appearances in all competitions, Southampton will be reliant on Manolo Gabbiadini to lead the attack, the Italian forward has two goals in his last two games.

Team News

The Saints will be going into battle without key man Mario Lemina who has picked up an ankle injury, the midfielder has been Southampton’s starman since signing from Juventus earlier this year. In his absence, last weeks match winner Sofiane Boufal will be looking to be promoted to Southampton’s starting 11.

Southampton still remain without defender Jeremy Pied, but, the Saint’s have a full-strength squad with no fresh injury concerns.

Key Factors to Consider

  • In the sides previous meetings, Brighton have only managed to come away with two victories in their last 13 attempts
  • Brighton have lost just two of their last seven Premier League appearances
  • Southampton have won five Premier League away matches in 2017, one more than their tally at home
  • The Saint’s have failed to score in nine of their last 15 Premier League matches
  • Victory over Southampton would also ensure back-to-back top-flight victories for the first time since September 1982

Conclusion

If you’re a fan of goals, then maybe this isn’t the game for you. Between the two sides, they have only managed to find the back of the net 17 times and have only conceded 19 in return. In six of Brighton’s last nine Premier League appearances, the Seagulls have seen fewer than three goals in their games, Southampton also boast an identical record, under 2.5 goals seems like the most logical bet here.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals

Best Odds: 8/15

Bookmaker: Bet365

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Tom Dunstan


Formerly of The Independent, Tom has spent the past six years as one of our senior writers and betting experts. Alongside working with numerous publications from across the globe, Tom also graduated from the University of Falmouth in 2014 with a Bachelor of Arts Degree in Digital Media.
Spending almost the past decade working in countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada, he has also spent time featuring in sports radio. Tom can be followed on Instagram - @iamtomdunstan

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