Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5
Best odds: 21/20
Bookmaker: 888sport
After a midweek draw at home, Inter Milan will look to get back on track Sunday evening as they host Empoli at San Siro.
The Serie A champions managed to reduce Napoli’s lead by just one point on Wednesday, as a potential three-way battle for the Scudetto begins to unfold.
Inter Milan
Inter sought a seventh consecutive league win earlier this week as they hosted Bologna, with a victory set to bring them within a point of Serie A leaders Napoli. Despite falling behind to an early Santiago Castro goal, Inter turned the tide before halftime. Denzel Dumfries continued his fine form with a close-range strike, followed by Lautaro Martinez’s stoppage-time goal.
However, Bologna equalized in the second half, and the 2-2 draw left the reigning champions three points behind Napoli, although Inter still hold a game in hand. Defensive frailties, exacerbated by injuries, have been evident, with 12 home goals conceded this season – already surpassing last year’s total.
Despite these setbacks, Inter remain firmly in the title race, competing alongside Napoli and Atalanta, while also pursuing success in the Champions League and the Coppa Italia. Ahead of Sunday’s encounter, the Nerazzurri have scored in their last 32 league matches at San Siro, and coach Simone Inzaghi will expect that streak to continue against Empoli – a team they have defeated in 13 of their last 14 Serie A meetings.
Team News
Henrikh Mkhitaryan is set to return to action this weekend, while veteran defender Francesco Acerbi may make the bench as he recovers from a long-term injury.
However, the Nerazzurri remain without Yann Bisseck, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Joaquin Correa due to thigh injuries, while Davide Frattesi, who has been linked with a move away, is training individually due to a muscular issue.
With squad rotation likely between their midweek league game and Wednesday’s Champions League trip to Prague, captain Lautaro Martinez is expected to lead the line. The Argentinian forward will aim to score in consecutive league games at San Siro for the first time since February.
Empoli
Empoli face a daunting trip to Inter Milan, the club against whom they have suffered the most defeats (26 of 33) and conceded the most goals (69) in their Serie A history.
Adding to their woes, the Tuscan side has lost five of their last seven league games, the same number of defeats they endured in their previous 19 matches. Last week’s 3-1 home loss to Lecce, another struggling team, was particularly disheartening. Trailing by two goals within 11 minutes at Stadio Castellani, Liberato Cacace’s second-half strike briefly inspired hope before Nikola Krstovic sealed Empoli’s fate in stoppage time.
Now just two points above the relegation zone, Empoli’s bright start under Davide Nicola feels like a distant memory. With tough Serie A fixtures against Inter, Juventus, AC Milan, and Atalanta ahead, followed by a Coppa Italia quarterfinal against Juve, things are likely to get worse before they get better.
Team News
Empoli’s attack features Milan loanee Lorenzo Colombo and Inter-owned Sebastiano Esposito, who previously made seven Serie A appearances for the Nerazzurri in the 2019/20 season, becoming their second-youngest scorer.
This season, Esposito has excelled on the road, scoring six away goals, joint-most in the league alongside Atalanta’s Mateo Retegui, and will be eager to shine on his return to Milan.
Goalkeeper Devis Vasquez could reclaim his spot after a surprising omission against Lecce, but Empoli remains without Tino Anjorin and Ola Solbakken, along with long-term absentees Pietro Pellegri, Nicolas Haas, Saba Sazonov, and Tyronne Ebuehi.
Conclusion
In 16 prior Serie A encounters at San Siro, Inter and Empoli have never played to a draw, with the Nerazzurri claiming 14 victories and the Tuscan side managing just two wins.
While Empoli would happily settle for a point on Sunday, Inter’s superior quality and form make them strong favorites to secure a comfortable win against their struggling visitors.
Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5
Best odds: 21/20
Bookmaker: 888sport
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