Prediction: Liverpool vs Napoli

Liverpool and Napoli are set to face each other at Anfield on Tuesday evening, in the final round of the group stage of the Champions League, in a contest that might under certain conditions decide the winner of Group A.

Those conditions are, however, unlikely to be met and chances are, it has already been decided. It will, however, most certainly be a clash of two teams whose respective seasons could hardly have gone further away from each other.

Liverpool

For Liverpool, it’s been a huge disappointment. It started bad enough, with three Premier League matches without a win compounded by a proper thrashing at the hands of Napoli in the opening round of the Champions League in Naples. A triumph or two occasionally came in the English top flight, followed always by another underwhelming performance and defeat (or two).

Many believed last season’s runners-up in both competitoins, not to mention the winners of both cup competitions in England, would bounce back properly after their triumphs over Manchester City and West Ham, but then came fresh disappointments against the likes of Nottingham Forest and Leeds United.

It has, on the other hand, been much better in Europe after that defeat to Napoli, and Liverpool have already secured a place in the knockout stages of UEFA’s elite competition. With 12 points, they sit whole nine above Ajax in third place, and as has been said, this is the final round in which the Dutch champions can only hope to clinch the Europa League spot by avoiding a heavy embarrassment away to bottom side Rangers.

On paper, the last-six run of the Merseysiders doesn’t look too bad – four wins and two defeats, but as has been said, those two defeats came against opposition they really should have beaten, more so than any of the teams they did beat. It started with a 1-7 triumph away to Rangers, followed by the 1-0 win over Manchester City and the one over West Ham by the same scoreline, both at home. Then came the Nottingham Forest shock, a 1-0 defeat away to the Premier League newcomers, a surprisingly comfortable 0-3 win away to Ajax, and the Leeds shock, a 1-2 defeat at home.

Team News

One of the reasons for this abysmal campaign by Jurgen Klopp’s men is surely the number of injuries which have been hitting them relentlessly from the start.

At the moment, it’s their attacking section that’s been hit the most, with Luis Diaz (knee) and Diogo Jota (calf) out probably until the end of December. The same goes for midfielder Arthur Melo (hamstring). Naby Keita (muscle) is getting closer to returning to contention but he isn’t quite there yet. And at the back, Klopp currently cannot call upon Joel Matip (calf), while Ibrahima Konate is only just back from a knee problem.

These problems leave Klopp with very little choice, particularly in attack. If Liverpool want to even stand a chance of beating Napoli, it will be Darwin Nunez alongside Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah upfront. Fabinho may be given a rest after an underwhelming game against Leeds, which would leave Jordan Henderson to start alongside Thiago Alcantara and either Curtis Jones or Harvey Elliott.

It remains to be seen if Konate is ready to start, and the fans would likely welcome the change after Joe Gomez acted extremely unwisely in the fourth minute of the Leeds game and set Rodrigo Moreno directly up for the opening goal for the visitors. Klopp could also rest Andy Robertson with Kostas Tsimikas ready to deputize on the left defensive flank.

Napoli

Unlike Liverpool, who are ninth in the Premier League and obviously far from the title race, Napoli lead the way in the Serie A and for anyone who has seen them play this term, it will not have come as a surprise. Further more, Luciano Spalletti’s team will have a good chance of increasing the current five-point gap to second-place Atalanta later this week, as they travel to Bergamo on Saturday.

Since the start of the term, many eyes have been drawn to the dazzling quality of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Only 21, the Georgian newcomer has provided Napoli with a spark so bright, that few teams in Europe can boast about having something similar in their ranks.  ‘Kvara’, as he’s affectionately referred to by the fans as well as teammates, has 28 goal involvements (16 goals, 12 assists) in 27 matches in all competitions so far. He was a huge problem for Liverpool’s fragile defence in Naples, and unless Spalletti decides to give him a rest ahead of the Atalanta trip, he’s sure to light up Anfield as well.

In fact, he’s exactly the sort of player that could inject some much needed energy into this Liverpool team, but given that he’s only just joined Napoli and is under contract until the summer of 2027, there isn’t really much chance for him to change clubs again so soon, unless a suitor makes an offer well in excess of €100 million. Given the way Napoli president Aurelio De Laurentiis usually handles transfers, the Serie A leaders probably wouldn’t part with Kvaratskhelia for anything less.

Leaving all speculation aside for now, Napoli’s last-six run started with a 1-4 triumph away to Cremonese, followed by a 4-2 home win over Ajax, a 3-2 home win over Bologna, a 0-1 victory away to AS Roma, a 3-0 beating of Rangers and a 4-0 thrashing of Sassuolo, both at home. Six from six.

With 15 points, they obviously lead the group ahead of Liverpool, and only a defeat of more than three goals at Anfield could dislodge them from the top spot. As we said at the start, it’s not very likely to happen.

Team News

Apart from Kvaratskhelia, Spalletti could rest striker Victor Osimhen for Atalanta too, as well as winger Matteo Politano who is a booking away from suspension in the Champions League. If so, Giovanni Simeone is likely to lead the line, with Hirving Lozano and Giacomo Raspadori in support.

Defender Amir Rrahmani (abductor muscle) and goalkeeper Salvatore Sirigu (muscle fatigue) are currently out of action, so Alex Meret is set to stand between the posts, with the duo of Leo Ostigard and Min-jae Kim forming the centre-back duo ahead of him. Mario Rui and captain Giovani Di Lorenzo should be covering the defensive flanks, but in the middle of the park, Spalletti could make further changes with the likes of Tanguy Ndombele and Eljif Elmas waiting for a chance to stand in for Piotr Zielinski and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa.

Conclusion

If Spalletti indeed goes for all these changes, given that winning the group shouldn’t be in question and the Atalanta challenge a few days later, Liverpool might just stand a chance of making up for the abysmal showing against Leeds and Nottingham Forest in the eyes of the Anfield faithful.

Therefore, a Liverpool win seems the likeliest outcome, though not by a scoreline that would have them finish above Napoli in the group. More likely it’ll be a tight one.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 5/6

Bookmaker: 888sport