Thursday, March 28, 2024

Prediction: Mexico vs USA

Tom Dunstan in Free Soccer Predictions, World Cup 23 Mar 2022

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Verdict: Under 3.5 goals

Best Odds: 4/11

Bookmaker: Unibet

Two sides who are in pole position to book a spot at this year’s World Cup Finals, Mexico will welcome the USA to the Estadio Azteca in the early hours of Friday.

Mexico

Starting with the hosts, after suffering that heartbreaking last-gasp defeat in the Gold Cup Final against the USA seven months ago, there is no doubt that Mexico will be seeking some revenge here. However, while Gerardo Martino’s side might have endured a tricky end to 2021, the former Barcelona boss has still seen his side largely impress over recent years. Sat in pole position to book an automatic spot at this year’s World Cup and holding a four-point buffer over the chasing pack, the Tricolor were last seen on February 3rd claiming a deserved 1-0 win against Panama on home soil. Knowing just how important three points could be in the early hours of Friday, it should be noted that Mexico hold a rather rampant qualifying record in front of their own supporters. Including coming from behind to grab a 2-1 victory against Jamaica last year, Martino’s men are remarkably unbeaten in each of their last 14 World Cup qualifying contests on home soil, a run that stems back to September 2013.

Team News

Wolves’ Raul Jimenez looks set to lead the Tricolor’s charge on Friday and has the chance to become Mexico’s seventh all-time goalscorer here.

Veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa is once again expected to start between the sticks.

USA

As for the visitors, while the USA might have been disappointed to have been hit with a 2-0 defeat against rivals Canada last year, it appears that might have just been a minor blip for Gregg Berhalter’s high-flying squad. Last seen storming their way to a thumping 3-0 victory against Honduras on February 3rd, the Stars and Stripes have only continued to gain a host of admirers. Shocking Mexico as they claimed the Gold Cup seven months ago, the Whites are another squad sat in pole position to book a spot at this year’s World Cup Finals. Smelling the chance to cause another upset in the early hours of Friday, it should be noted that the USA have lost just a pair of their last 17 straight matchups across all formats. However, while Berhalter’s side might host a string of European stars, they have managed to win just one of their last five contests on foreign soil, including dropping points against the likes of Panama and El Salvador.

Team News

Suffering a hamstring injury against Galatasaray last week, Barcelona full-back Sergino Dest will not feature here.

Likewise, along with missing Juventus’ Weston McKennie, new Arsenal keeper Matt Turner is still dealing with an ankle injury.

Key Factors to Consider

    • Including lifting the Gold Cup thanks to a last-gasp winner seven months ago, the USA have won their last three meetings against Mexico across all formats.
    • Likewise, the Stars and Strips have lost just a pair of their last 17 matchups across all formats.
    • Mexico are remarkably unbeaten in each of their last 14 World Cup qualifying contests on home soil, a run that stems back to September 2013.
    • Each of the USA’s last nine contests have seen under 3.5 goals by the final whistle.
    • Likewise, each of Mexico’s last 11 matchups have also seen under 3.5 goals by full-time.

    Conclusion

    Although the USA might be tipped as a real outside shout with the bookmakers here, they should be boosted by a hugely impressive record against Mexico. Lifting the Gold Cup seven months ago thanks to a last-gasp 1-0 victory, Friday’s guests are unbeaten in each of their last three meetings against their top-three rivals. in a showdown between two sides who are sat in pole position to book an automatic spot at this year’s World Cup finals, we could be in for another low-scoring affair at the Estadio Azteca. It should be highlighted, along with the USA seeing each of their last nine matchups finish with under 3.5 goals, Mexico have also seen their previous 11 outings finish in an identical outcome.

    Verdict: Under 3.5 goals

    Best Odds: 4/11

    Bookmaker: Unibet

    ABOUT THE AUTHOR

    Tom Dunstan


    Formerly of The Independent, Tom has spent the past six years as one of our senior writers and betting experts. Alongside working with numerous publications from across the globe, Tom also graduated from the University of Falmouth in 2014 with a Bachelor of Arts Degree in Digital Media.
    Spending almost the past decade working in countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada, he has also spent time featuring in sports radio. Tom can be followed on Instagram - @iamtomdunstan

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