Prediction: Brest vs Paris Saint-Germain

Verdict: Total away goals over 2.5

Best odds: 21/20

Bookmaker: ZetBet

Regular rivals in the French top flight, Paris Saint-Germain and Brest shift their focus to the Champions League on Tuesday evening, facing off in the first leg of their play-off tie at the Stade Francis-Le Ble.

Both teams collected 13 points during the league phase, but PSG’s superior goal difference secured Luis Enrique’s side a spot among the seeded teams in the 36-club standings.

Brest

While PSG struggled to find their footing early in the Champions League, Eric Roy’s Brest emerged as surprise contenders for a top-eight spot, winning three of their first four league phase matches and earning a draw against Bundesliga giants Bayer Leverkusen.

However, Les Pirates couldn’t sustain their impressive European run in the latter half of the group stage, falling to Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Shakhtar Donetsk. Nevertheless, a crucial victory over PSV Eindhoven on matchday five secured their place in the playoffs.

Brest’s achievement marks a historic milestone, as no French team had advanced to the knockout rounds in their debut European campaign since Nice in the 1956-57 European Cup—the competition’s second edition. They’ve also prepared well for Tuesday’s landmark fixture.

Following a 2-1 Coupe de France win away to Troyes on February 4, Roy guided his team to a 2-0 Ligue 1 victory over Nantes on Friday, with goals from Ludovic Ajorque and Pierre Lees-Melou keeping Brest firmly in the top half of the standings.

However, Brest’s last home game was against PSG, who cruised to a 5-2 Ligue 1 win on February 1, extending their unbeaten streak against Les Pirates to an astonishing 30 matches. Brest have not defeated the reigning champions since January 1985.

Team News

Bradley Locko (leg) and Karamoko Dembele (muscle) remain sidelined, while midfielder Jonas Martin is also dealing with a muscular issue and is unlikely to feature.

However, Roy has no new injury concerns ahead of the first leg, and PSG’s defense can expect a physical challenge from Brest’s imposing striker, Ludovic Ajorque.

The 30-year-old was relentless during the league phase, applying more pressures in the opposition half than any other player – an impressive 447 in total – while his 293 pressures in the attacking third were second only to Erling Haaland’s 295.

Paris Saint-Germain

While PSG’s domestic trophy haul at the Parc des Princes continues to grow, their quest for a maiden Champions League title remains unfulfilled, and a shaky league phase hasn’t exactly inspired confidence that this could be their breakthrough year.

Luis Enrique’s side managed just one win in their first five matches of the 2024-25 campaign, putting them at serious risk of an early exit. However, the Ligue 1 champions hit their stride late, securing three consecutive victories to close out the group stage.

Red Bull Salzburg, Manchester City, and Stuttgart all succumbed to PSG’s resurgence in those final fixtures. Now, the Parisian giants are aiming to win four consecutive Champions League matches for the first time since February 2021.

Following their 4-1 triumph over Stuttgart to wrap up the league phase, PSG mirrored that scoreline with a dominant win against Monaco on Friday night—an ideal way to celebrate Luis Enrique’s contract extension as he leads their seemingly inevitable march toward a fourth straight Ligue 1 title.

PSG’s rout of Monaco marked their fourth straight win across all competitions and extended their impressive unbeaten streak to 16 matches. However, their last defeat did come in a Champions League away tie against Bayern Munich, a reminder that challenges still await on the European stage.

Team News

Ahead of their win over Monaco, PSG confirmed that Warren Zaire-Emery and fellow teenager Ibrahim Mbaye were both sidelined with ankle sprains, making them likely absentees for the clash against Brest as well.

Aside from those injuries, the French champions have a fully fit squad for their short trip to the Stade Francis-Le Blé, where January signing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is set to make his Champions League debut for the club on the left wing.

The Georgian international will line up in support of the in-form Ousmane Dembele, who netted a hat-trick against Stuttgart and followed it up with a brace in the rout of Monaco, bringing his season tally to 21 goals across all competitions.

Conclusion

PSG’s dominant head-to-head record against Brest over the past four decades speaks volumes, and with Ousmane Dembele in prolific form, the hosts are unlikely to pose a significant threat to the French champions.

Whether Les Parisiens can finally clinch the elusive Champions League title this year remains uncertain, but much like their encounter two Saturdays ago, Luis Enrique’s side are expected to comfortably dispatch Roy’s men with a convincing, multi-goal victory.

Verdict: Total away goals over 2.5

Best odds: 21/20

Bookmaker: ZetBet