Monday, June 17, 2024

Prediction: Flamengo vs Gremio

Stefan Budur in Free Soccer Predictions 11 Jun 2024


Verdict: AH Flamengo (-1.5)

Best odds: 61/50

Bookmaker: ZetBet

Looking to extend their Serie A lead Flamengo will host Gremio at the famous Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. Although the hosts are favourites to win all points at stake, the visitors’ recent displays indicate a difficult test for the leaders.


Flamengo is having another great season with excellent results across all competitions. Despite a few unexpected setbacks in Serie A, the hosts retained their top position with 14 points after seven rounds, level with Bahia but with an improved goal difference.

Still, dropping 7 points early in the season indicates a lack of consistency following a busy schedule with tough battles domestically and at the continental level. While the Serie A fixtures were business as usual for the 8th-time Serie A champions, Flamengo struggled unexpectedly in Copa Libertadores.

Despite being tipped to gain supremacy against Bolivar, Palestino and Millonarios, Flamengo left the progress into the knockout stage in the last game. A slow start with a stalemate against Millonarios and two defeats against Palestino and Bolivar diminished Flamengo’s chances of reaching the knockout stage.

However, the end games schedule favoured the Scarlet-Black who defeated at home Bolivar and Millonarios to secure their journey in the competition. Furthermore, Tite’s team progressed through the quarter-finals of Copa do Brasil following a 2-0 aggregate doubleheader against Amazonas. The former Brazil national team coach’s attacking style resurfaced evidently in the last two games won by Flamengo who scored nine goals.

After defeating Millonarios with a no-contest 3-0, Tite’s players delivered a masterpiece performance by hammering Vasco in the Serie A with a shocking 6-1 win. Following the game against Gremio, Flamengo will be on the road towards Curitiba to face out-of-form Athletico Paranense.

Team News

Tite has a full fit squad at his disposition ready to face Gremio. The Brazilian coach is expected to line up the same players used against Vasco when Everton and Pedro stole the show. The latter will be keen to have his name on the scoresheet attempting to claim the Serie A’s top scorer position.


Following a poor start to the season with three defeats in the first five rounds, Gremio fell to 13th place in Serie A with two wins and three defeats. Although the visitors displayed recovery signs in Copa Libertadores where they managed to progress through the knockout stage, further missteps in the Brazilian top flight might end up early any prospects of winning domestic silverware.

Even more disappointing for the two-time Serie A winner is the table position that sees Gremio closer to relegation than the Copa Sudamericana positions after dismal performances resulting in a negative (-1) goal difference. The visitors’ struggles continued in the Copa do Brasil after the 1st leg of the last 16 away stalemate (0-0) at second-tier side, Operaio.

Despite delivering a heavy defeat (4-0) to The Strongest in the Copa Libertadores group stage, the lack of consistency resurfaced following a dreadful performance in front of their fans who witnessed their favourite losing to Bragantino (0-2). While Gremio might be temporarily out of next season’s Copa Libertadores table positions, the 6 points deficit can be narrowed with a positive result against leaders Flamengo.

However, a h2h negative record against the hosts that counts a pair of wins in the last 10 fixtures makes a major upset highly unlikely. Following the tricky test at Flamengo, Gremio has another difficult test in front of their fans against Botafogo, as these two games will define Renato Gaucho’s team’s first part of the season outcome.

Team News

Central midfielder Felipe Carballo is sidelined after suffering a terrible injury that resulted in surgery. The player will be out for at least a couple of months. Renato Gaucho hopes to see the version of his team that played excellently in the last Copa Libertadores match against The Strongest resulting in a 4-0 romp.

Key factors to consider

  • Flamengo leads the Serie A with a record of 4 wins, 2 draws and a single defeat
  • The hosts scored nine goals in the last three games across all competitions
  • Although the visitors qualified in the knockout phase of the Copa Libertadores, the domestic struggles sent Gremio to 13th place in the Serie A standings
  • Renato Gaucho’s team lost the last four games played at Flamengo


Flamengo is in 5th gear cruising towards their 9th Championship Crown. Although Gremio displayed some recovery signs lately, the hosts’ firepower should be enough to get a comfortable win that will consolidate their Serie A position.

Verdict: AH Flamengo (-1.5)

Best odds: 61/50

Bookmaker: ZetBet


Stefan Budur

Former owner of Betting Mojo, experienced bettor and former punter at Betadvisor, Stefan has done it all when it comes to soccer betting. With more than 15 years of experience in the gambling industry, he gained a lot of knowledge that he'd like to share with readers so you can position yourself better every time you place a bet.



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