Sunday, August 9, 2020

Prediction: Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

Tom Dunstan in Bundesliga, Free Soccer Predictions 22 May 2020

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Verdict: Freiburg win

Best Odds: 23/20

Bookmaker: Bet365

With German football once again taking center stage from behind closed doors this weekend, Freiburg will look to keep up their stay in the European hunt when they host a struggling Werder Bremen on Saturday afternoon.

Freiburg

Starting with the hosts, while Freiburg might only have managed to win just one of their last five Bundesliga outings on paper, that doesn’t tell the full story for Christian Streich’s side. Putting in a plucky display against title outsiders RB Leipzig on home soil following their return to action, the Red and Blacks were left heartbroken to have seen VAR rule out what would have been a stunning victory. Opening Saturday’s contest sat just two points adrift of breaking into the European spots, Freiburg have already picked up more points after 26 matches (37) than they managed across each of the previous two seasons (36). Hoping to build off of what was an eye-catching display last weekend, Saturday’s hosts also have a growing reputation for their clinical threat from set-pieces. In fact, eleven of Freiburg’s last 15 goals have come via set-pieces and they should be relishing Bremen’s arrival this week.

Team News

Aside from central defender Lukas Kübler who is still dealing with a knee injury, Head Coach Christian Streich has a full squad to pick from this weekend.

Werder Bremen

As for the visitors, marking their Bundesliga return with yet another torrid display last weekend, the mood in Werder Bremen’s camp remains at a continued low. Completely blown away by Champions League hopefuls Bayer Leverkusen and hit with a 4-1 hammering, the former German giants find themselves sat nine points adrift of safety and on the verge of losing their 52-year top-flight status. Continuing on what can best be described as a woeful campaign for Florian Kohfeldt’s side, the Greens have lost five of their last six matches across all competitions and have remarkably landed just a sole Bundesliga victory since December 1st. Now losing 10 of their last 12 top-flight outings, their worst run in recent memory, Bremen have also shown some rather glaring issues at the back. Shipping four goals against Leverkusen last week, Saturday’s guests have shipped at least a pair of strikes in each of their last seven Bundesliga appearances on the bounce.

Team News

Bremen boss Florian Kohfeldt will be unable to call upon the trio of Niclas Füllkrug (torn ACL), Kevin Möhwald (knee) and Claudio Pizarro (thigh).

Key Factors to Consider

  • Including a 2-2 draw earlier in the season, each of the last three meetings between Freiburg and Bremen have seen both teams find the net.
  • Saturday’s guests have lost 10 of their last 12 Bundesliga matchups.
  • Bremen have also shipped at least a pair of goals in their last seven top-flight matches on the bounce.
  • Freiburg have already picked up more points after 26 matches (37) than they managed across each of the previous two seasons (36).
  • Five of Freiburg’s last six Bundesliga matchups have seen under 2.5 goals at full-time.

Conclusion

On paper, Freiburg should see this weekend as a real opportunity to extend on their European charge. While Saturday’s hosts may have won just one of their last five Bundesliga outings, Christian Streich’s side will be relishing Bremen’s arrival to the Schwarzwald-Stadion. With the relegation scrappers in the midst of their worst run in recent memory and opening the weekend sat nine points adrift of safety, we’re backing a home victory on Saturday afternoon.

Verdict: Freiburg win

Best Odds: 23/20

Bookmaker: Bet365

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Tom Dunstan


Formerly of The Independent, Tom is a freelance football and boxing journalist from Essex, England. Currently working for three online publications, Tom is a graduate of the University of Falmouth and has spent the last two years writing across Australia, New Zealand and Asia. He can be followed at @IamTomDunstan

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