Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Prediction: Lazio vs AC Milan

Juan Pablo Aravena in Free Soccer Predictions, Serie A 24 Nov 2018


Verdict: Over 2.5 goals – yes

Best Odds: 4/5

Bookmaker: 888sport

Two teams that are on the bubble when it comes to a potential UEFA Champions League qualification at the end of the season will meet this Sunday at Stadio Olimpico. Lazio and AC Milan are separated by just one point in the standings, and the aim is clere here: whoever wins the match, will move into Champions League zone. Kick-off is scheduled for this Sunday at 17:00 hrs UK time.


Lazio usually goes all or nothing in their Serie A matches, and the numbers back that up. The Rome-based side only has one draw during the current campaign, and that came in the previous outing before the international break. But if we remove that result, and we also forget the team’s two-game losing streak at the beginning of the season, then we can see Lazio have won seven of their remaining Serie A matches. That has been enough to place them at fourth place in the standings with 22 points. They have also lost only one of their previous five league matches (W3, D1, L1), and seem to be heading into the right direction. This might not be enough to have them fighting for the league title, but they surely look like a Champions League contender. Can they take another step in that direction against AC Milan?

Team News

Lazio won’t have many absences. Their lone confirmed absentee will be midfielder Lucas Leiva due to a groin injury.

Three other players are doubtful, though. The list includes Felipe Caicedo (thigh), Riza Durmisi (illness) and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (knee).

AC Milan

Gennaro Gattuso’s men have been playing better than expected this season, and Milan finally look like a team that is ready to take the next step in their return to a prominent status in the Serie A. They are coming off a 2-0 loss to Juventus in their previous Serie A match, and have also lost their past two in all competitions since they also lost to Real Betis (1-0) in the UEFA Europa League. But Milan have still won six of their previous 10 outings across all competitions (W6, D1, L3), and sit in fifth place of the standings with 21 points. A win would put Milan into Champions League qualification zone, but they would remain four points behind the third-placed Inter Milan and Napoli (depending what happens on his Sunday match). But this should be enough motivation for Milan to try to secure a good result on the road, where they have won just two of their six games this term.

Team News

AC Milan will have lots of absentees ahead of this game. Gonzalo Higuain (suspension) headlines a list of confirmed absences that also includes Lucas Biglia (calf), Giacomo Bonaventura (knee), Mattia Caldara (calf), Ivan Strinic (heart problems), Mateo Musacchio (knee) and Alessio Romagnoli (calf).

As if that wasn’t enough, several other players are doubtful. These are Davide Calabria (ankle), Emanuele Torrasi (undisclosed) and Hakan Calhanoglu (foot).

Key Factors to Consider

  • At home, Lazio have four wins this SA season (W4, L2), conceding just seven goals (0.57 per game). Lazio have also recorded seven wins in their last ten SA games (W7, D1, L2).
  • On the road, Milan have won just twice this SA season (W2, D2, L2)-
  • In 150 top-flight H2H league matches, the record reads 28 wins for Lazio, 58 draws, and 64 wins for Milan.
  • Lazio have beaten Milan just twice in the last ten H2H games (W2, D4, L4).
  • Lazio have failed to score in just one SA home match this season. Meanwhile, Milan have kept just one clean sheet in their SA away matches so far.


This game has all the makings of one that is going to be tight and that will go down to the wire. However, both sides have strong attacking lines. Expect this one to finish with over 2.5 goals scored.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals – yes

Best Odds: 4/5

Bookmaker: 888sport


Juan Pablo Aravena

A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.



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