Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Prediction: Marseille vs Montpellier

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 11/20

Bookmaker: 888sport

It’s the final week of the 2018-19 Ligue 1 season, and fifth place is at stake between Marseille and Montpellier. The visitors currently hold the edge since they own a one-point lead over Les Olympians, but everything is up for grabs here. Who will grab the honour of obtaining a Top 5 finish in France’s top-flight?


Rudi Garcia’s farewell match at Olympique Marseille will be in front of their own crowd, where they have gone W10, D4, L4 across the entire season. However, they haven’t looked very good in recent weeks. The French giants have gone W2, D1, L2 over their last five league outings, and at home they’re currently riding a two-game losing streak following their 0-3 defeat against Lyon in their previous home outing. Right now, Les Olympians sit in sixth place of the standings with 58 points, and they could overtake their opponents with a win. They should have confidence in their recent H2H home record against Montpellier, however, as they’ve gone undefeated in their last four outings against La Paillade side. Can they extend that run and finish their Ligue 1 season with a win in front of their own crowd? Certainly that would be an appropiate farewell for their departing manager.

Team News

Marseille shouldn’t have many absentees ahead of this match. In fact, the lone player that has been ruled out is Duje Caleta Car, who’s suspended.

Bouna Sarr is doubtful, but unlikely to play, due to a knee problem.


Montpellier, on the other hand, sit in fifth place of the standings with 59 points and while they can’t reach the fifth-placed St. Etienne (65 points), at the very least they want to end the campaign with a Top 5 finish. They have lost just eight games all season long, and their away form has also been quite decent since they’ve gone W7, D6, L5 on the road during the current term. They can have confidence based on the fact that they have won their last two road outings, and that impressive form can be extended to their overall form since they’ve gone undefeated in their last five league outings (W3, D2). They’ve drawn 14 matches already, however, and that has complicated them on their quest to reach a European spot. But their overall season has been quite a success, and they will aim to end it with a strong win on the road.

Team News

Montpellier could be considerably depleted entering this match. Ellyes Shkiri and Florent Mollet are suspended, while Ruben Aguilar is out with a thigh problem.

Three other players are doubtful. Keegan Dolly and Gonzalez Piriz are dealing with thigh problems, while Mathias Suarez has an ankle injury.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Marseille have won just once in their last four league matches. Their five-game form reads W2, D1, L2.
  • Montpellier, on the other hand, have gone undefeated in each of their last five Ligue 1 outings (W3, D2).
  • The visitors also hold the edge in the last five H2H meetings, losing just once over that span (W2, D2, L1).
  • Three of the last five H2H matches have featured over 2.5 goals. Three of those have also seen both sides scoring.
  • Montpellier won the previous fixture this season by a convincing 3-0 score.


Three of the last five matches between both sides have featured over 2.5 goals scored, including the previous meeting between both clubs this season. And considering both clubs will want to win this game, I can predict an open contest.

Expect this match to have over 2.5 goals scored in total.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 11/20

Bookmaker: 888sport


Juan Pablo Aravena

A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.



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