Prediction: Real Madrid vs Arsenal

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Betfair

It’s do-or-die for reigning Champions League holders Real Madrid on Wednesday night, as Carlo Ancelotti’s side must produce a remarkable comeback against Arsenal in the second leg of their quarter-final to keep their hopes of a 16th title alive.

The 15-time European champions were humbled 3-0 at the Emirates in the first leg, but now look to harness the magic of the Bernabeu to turn the tie around.

Real Madrid

As Real Madrid’s prized acquisition Kylian Mbappe continues his wait for a first-ever goal from a direct free kick, Arsenal’s £105m man Declan Rice offered a masterclass in North London, firing home two stunning set-piece goals within just 12 minutes.

Even legendary Madrid free-kick taker Roberto Carlos – watching on at the Emirates – might have managed a smile as Rice first curled a beauty around the wall, then found the top corner with a pinpoint second, before stand-in striker Mikel Merino joined the party with a brilliant first-time finish.

In a night that may go down as the most iconic in the Emirates Stadium’s history, Real Madrid – thoroughly outplayed and outfought – suffered a rare first-leg thrashing, losing by three or more goals in a European knockout tie for just the fifth time.

Historically, Los Blancos have been knocked out on four of those five occasions, though the one exception came against English opposition – overturning a 4-1 deficit to beat Derby County 5-1 in the second leg of the 1975-76 last 16.

As both Manchester City and Chelsea know well, no lead is ever safe at the Bernabeu, but Real have only twice beaten English sides by at least four goals in Champions League history – a 5-1 win over Derby and a 4-0 quarter-final thrashing of Tottenham Hotspur in 2011.

However, the reigning champions could only muster a single goal in their latest La Liga clash with Alaves, where Eduardo Camavinga was the match-winner before Mbappe was sent off. That said, Real haven’t failed to score at home in a Champions League game since December 2018, when CSKA Moscow shut them out.

Team News

Mbappe’s red card against Alaves will have no bearing on his availability for Wednesday’s European showdown, but Real Madrid will be without their weekend hero Eduardo Camavinga, who is suspended after a second yellow in the first leg – picked up for kicking the ball away – which would have ruled him out of the return fixture regardless.

Camavinga is one of three definite absentees for Carlo Ancelotti this week, joining long-term knee injury victims Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal on the sidelines. Meanwhile, Ferland Mendy (muscle) and Andriy Lunin (calf) remain major doubts after both missed the Alaves clash altogether.

There is a silver lining in midfield, though, with Aurelien Tchouameni returning from a first-leg suspension and likely to slot straight in for Camavinga. Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior, who were only used off the bench at the weekend, should also return to the starting lineup with plenty left in the tank.

Arsenal

Real Madrid’s shaky European defensive record at the Bernabeu – having conceded in each of their last 10 home games in the Champions League – bodes well for an Arsenal side unlikely to shut up shop for 90 minutes and simply defend their first-leg lead.

Mikel Arteta’s men, who were without Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, and Gabriel Magalhaes when they tore Real apart in North London, have one foot in a first semi-final since 2009 and just their third in club history. They’ll certainly feel they deserve it after delivering one of the finest European performances in Emirates history.

The only minor blemish on that night was Arsenal’s failure to turn complete dominance into an even greater lead — their 11 shots on target were the joint-most ever faced by Real in a Champions League knockout game — and that profligacy crept back in during the weekend’s 1-1 draw with Brentford.

That result all but handed Liverpool the Premier League title, which could be officially confirmed if Arsenal stumble against Ipswich Town this weekend. But their draw with Brentford did stretch their unbeaten run to nine matches, and they’ve now scored in eight straight, further fuelling belief they can land the final blow at the Bernabeu.

Nineteen years have passed since Thierry Henry’s iconic solo goal delivered a 1-0 win at this very venue, and Arsenal are still yet to lose to Real Madrid in a competitive fixture. Even if that unbeaten run ends on Wednesday, a narrow defeat would still be enough to seal one of the most significant knockout triumphs in their modern history.

Team News

Emerging unscathed from the Brentford clash would have been Arsenal’s top priority, but Arteta was left with more questions than answers after both Jorginho and Thomas Partey picked up second-half knocks. Neither injury is believed to be serious, but both players will need assessment before the midweek trip to the Bernabeu.

Ben White, a late withdrawal from the weekend’s XI due to a training knock, is also in the same boat. However, Jurrien Timber – fully rested and fit – is in line for a return regardless of White’s availability, bolstering the Gunners’ defensive options.

Several key names are expected to slot back into the starting lineup after being preserved at the weekend, including Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Myles Lewis-Skelly, and Mikel Merino – the latter boasting an impressive four-goal record against Real Madrid, his best against any single club.

Arsenal still have a handful of players unavailable: Gabriel Jesus (knee), Gabriel Magalhaes (hamstring), Kai Havertz (hamstring), and Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee) remain sidelined, while Riccardo Calafiori is unlikely to recover from his own knee issue in time to be considered.

Conclusion

If Arsenal can weather the early storm and keep the Bernabeu quiet for the opening 10 minutes – when the atmosphere there is at its fiercest – they’ll have laid the perfect foundation for progression. Real Madrid might have banked on a similar fast start at the Emirates, only to be stunned by Arsenal’s relentless second-half display.

Arteta’s defence has proven resilient enough to hold firm under pressure, and conceding the four goals required for a regulation or extra-time Madrid win seems unlikely given the Gunners’ discipline and structure. With the Spanish giants prone to lapses at the back, all it could take is one moment of magic – a “Henry moment” – from a cool-headed Gunner to put the tie to bed.

Do that, and Arsenal can start eyeing a tantalizing semi-final showdown with either Paris Saint-Germain or Aston Villa, just one step from Munich and the chance to make club history.

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Betfair