Monday, April 22, 2024

The Impact of Weather Conditions on Soccer Betting

Stefan Budur in Soccer Betting Strategies 7 Mar 2024


The impact of weather conditions on soccer betting has been long studied.

Strong winds, heavy rain and excessive heat can all influence the outcome of a bet.

In this article, I will pinpoint how the weather influences a football match and, how to take advantage of weather conditions in soccer betting.

Weather Conditions that influence soccer betting

It is well-known that most Premier League matches are played in rainy conditions.

Conversely, the games from Portugal and Spain are held in stadiums where temperatures often exceed 40 degrees Celsius. In the Scandinavian countries, the wind repeatedly disrupts the flow of a match, leading to surprise full-time results.

The Impact of Weather Conditions on Soccer Betting

Therefore, the most influential weather conditions that can change the course of a match result are:

  • heavy rain
  • strong wind
  • excessive heat
  • snow and extreme cold

Besides your usual pre-match analysis, I advise checking the weather conditions for each game you will bet on. You might think that both teams will play in the same weather so, the better team will still win.

Although this can be true most of the time, some types of bets will be greatly influenced by the pitch conditions.

Wet grounds have the potential for more dangerous tackles, leading to more bookings than expected. A strong wind can change the direction of a ball being crossed resulting in more corner kicks or a goal scored.

Excessive heat will produce more physical fatigue in players due to dehydration, leading to unexpected mistakes. Extreme cold with snow can affect a player’s vision on the pitch and increase the adrenaline resulting in poor ball passing.

Best soccer betting types for each weather condition

I already established that each weather condition will influence differently the result of a soccer bet. Also, some teams are better adapted to the same weather conditions than others. Let’s see why I recommend you place different bet types for each weather.

Bet on bookings in heavy rain match conditions

Imagine a wet pitch with defenders-loving tackles. It is a recipe for potentially more cards than expected. I advise you to pick derby games, knock-out matches, and fierce rivalry encounters. Some players can have a record to set straight from a previous match and a wet ground might be the perfect set-up.

Also, when the pitch is wet, the ball is more difficult to control leading to a more aggressive game. This can result in players protesting the referee’s decision, leading to further bookings.

Avoid using this strategy to place bets on lower leagues. The game might be abandoned due to a lack of effective pitch drainage resulting in a waterlogged ground. Furthermore, the following factors can contribute to more bookings:

  • does the referee have a high average of handing out bookings per game?
  • will aggressively known players take part in the game?

Consider all these factors when you decide to place bets on bookings in a match with a wet pitch. Also, use these tips to place in-play bets or to build accumulators.

Bet on corners in strong wind match conditions

A strong wind during the match will affect the player’s performance on the pitch who can struggle to control the ball. Even the most gifted soccer players will have difficulties controlling a ball that could suddenly change direction due to a strong wind.

The wind will most often impair the better team that controls the game. However, strong winds can disrupt the defensive line, forced to clear the ball after the opposition’s cross in the box. This will result in more corners for the attacking team.

Remember, the wind is blowing usually in the same direction. So, if a team faces the wind in the 1st half, the situation will be opposite in the 2nd half. This can become very important considering the better side’s speed of play might decrease due to playing facing the wind.

Also, the opposition’s team defenders will clear the balls crossed in the box much easier than in the 1st half.

Bet on under-goals in extreme heat match conditions

Some football competitions are played under extreme heat in the summer, just before the end of a season. On top of the fatigue accumulated during the season, boiling weather is a big blow for worn-out sides.

Imagine you played 40 games so far and you have an away noon game played at 40 degrees. As the match progresses, fatigue will increase for both sides. This can lead to a lack of clarity in front of the goalie by unexpectedly missing the target.

Some measures have already been implemented to ease the stress on players’ physical strain sustained in these games. From short hydration breaks to sometimes moving the match to a later hour, the governing bodies are doing their best to protect players.

In this scenario, I advise you to use the goals scored market and place an under-bet, choosing the line (2.5, 1.5) depending on the match. For example: if Real Madrid is playing away at Las Palmas, an under 2.5 wager is more suited.

A 4-fold ACCA could give a great return from under 2.5-goals selections.

Top tips for the impact of weather conditions on soccer betting

While you are more familiar with how the weather conditions influence the result of a football match, start placing bets by following the tips below:

  • bet on bookings in heavy rain match conditions
  • bet on corners when the match is played in strong wind weather
  • place under-goals bets (2.5, 1.5) when the game will be played in extreme heat

Before you start wagering money, set a betting strategy and test it using small stakes. Increase the stakes after you master the impact of weather conditions on Soccer Betting. Gamble responsibly using only the money you can afford to lose.


Stefan Budur

Former owner of Betting Mojo, experienced bettor and former punter at Betadvisor, Stefan has done it all when it comes to soccer betting. With more than 15 years of experience in the gambling industry, he gained a lot of knowledge that he'd like to share with readers so you can position yourself better every time you place a bet.



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