Tuesday, December 3, 2024

WSL: Something must give as perfect Chelsea face unbeaten Man Utd

SoccerNews in General Soccer News 21 Nov 2024

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Something has to give in the Women’s Super League on Sunday, as Chelsea put their perfect record on the line versus Manchester United, the only other unbeaten team in the division.

The clash at Kingsmeadow was postponed earlier in the season due to player welfare issues arising from the Blues’ busy Champions League schedule. This is therefore the last fixture before the international break and will draw all 12 teams even on eight matches played.

While Sonia Bompastor’s Chelsea made history with last week’s victory over title rivals Manchester City, this is United’s longest unbeaten start to a WSL campaign since they went through 10 matchdays without defeat in 2020-21.

A Chelsea victory would see the defending champions take a commanding five-point lead at the summit ahead of the hiatus, while a United win could blow the title race wide open. Which way will it go?

Leading the Pack

Despite a change in the dugout, Chelsea have started this season with the same relentless pace as they ended Emma Hayes’ reign, with Wednesday’s 3-0 win over Celtic making it 11 victories in as many games across all competitions.

Chelsea earned a reputation as mentality monsters under Hayes, but this is actually their best-ever start to a WSL season.

They have never scored more goals (25), conceded fewer goals (three), had a higher goal difference (+22) or a higher points total (21) than their current tallies after seven matches of a campaign.

Dating back to last season, the Blues have won 10 consecutive WSL matches, their longest ever winning run in the competition. The last team to have a longer winning run was City, who registered 14 straight victories between November and April last season.

Last Saturday, with a 2-0 win over City at Stamford Bridge, Bompastor became the first manager to triumph in each of their first seven games in charge of a team in the WSL. Chelsea, meanwhile, are just the third team in WSL history to win each of their opening seven games of a season, after Man City (2017-18) and Arsenal (2018-19).

This is nothing new for Bompastor, who has won 40 of her last 42 league matches as a manager with Lyon and Chelsea.

Across her career as a whole, Bompastor now averages 2.66 points per game and has a brilliant 85.9% win ratio across all competitions, having won 110 of her 128 competitive matches as a head coach. Her teams have shipped just 78 goals while plundering 414.

Marc Skinner’s United find themselves in the chasing pack, six points back of Chelsea in fifth but knowing a win could take them second. The likes of City, Brighton and Arsenal may be quietly cheering them on in the hope that they can prevent Chelsea from pulling away.

United have, though, drawn three of their last five games, with a home stalemate versus Aston Villa earlier this month a particular source of frustration.

They have, however, been incredibly tough to beat, something that can be attributed to their excellent defensive record. Across Europe’s top five leagues, Lyon and United (two each) are the only teams to have conceded fewer goals than Chelsea (three) in league play this campaign.

United have therefore conceded the fewest goals in the WSL this season.They are one of just three teams to concede two or fewer goals after seven games of a WSL season, along with Birmingham City in 2011 (two) and Man City in both 2016 (none) and 2019-20 (one).

Chelsea have already scored 25 league goals this term, with their xG (expected goals) overperformance of +10.2 (14.8 xG) being comfortably the best in the WSL. United’s defence can expect to face its toughest test yet, and they must hold firm if they are to earn a result.

Colombian Queen

One Chelsea player to really stand out this season is Colombia forward Mayra Ramirez. Her power, agility and skill has left defenders shaken across the league, with several big goals – including one versus title rivals Arsenal – showing why the Blues splashed out to acquire her.

She joined in January from Levante for a British record €450,000 (£375,000) plus add-ons. The 25-year-old has wasted no time in acclimatising to the WSL and becoming a focal point for Bompastor’s attack, with six goals and four assists in 13 league games for Chelsea.

She is averaging a goal or assist every 79 minutes in the WSL. In league history, only four players have a better minutes per goal or assist ratio than Ramirez (minimum 500 minutes played).

She has scored three and assisted two in Chelsea’s seven league games in 2024-25, putting her level with Guru Reiten (five goals) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals, two assists) for the most goal involvements for the Blues this campaign.

Only Man City duo Lauren Hemp (seven) and Khadija Shaw (eight) have registered more goal contributions than the Chelsea trio this season.

Bompastor’s Blues certainly give their forwards plenty of opportunities, with Ramirez recording 40 of her touches (19.8%) in the opposition area this season. Only five WSL players have recorded a greater percentage of touches in opposing areas in 2024-25 (minimum 20 touches in the opposition box).

Ramirez’s physical prowess only adds to her reputation as an all-round threat. Ramirez has contested more duels (79) than any other Chelsea player this term, winning 27 of them. Only Lucy Bronze (30), Sjoeke Nusken (34) and Millie Bright (35) have won more duels for the Blues. Having a forward who is not afraid to lead the press from the front helps Bompastor’s team pen teams in – only Man City (86 times) have won possession in the final third more often than Chelsea (68) in the WSL this season.

While City have forced more high turnovers (134 to 122) and shot-ending high turnovers (32 to 22) than Chelsea this term, the Blues have turned six of their high turnovers into goals, compared to five for Gareth Taylor’s team.

Ramirez has quickly established herself as one of the WSL’s best all-round forwards and will be one to watch on Sunday.

United’s Saving Grace

United, meanwhile, will be relying on Grace Clinton, who has picked up where she left off after enjoying a breakout campaign on loan at Tottenham in 2023-24.

Clinton is not only United’s leading scorer with three league goals this term, but also contributes out of possession, contesting 111 duels to rank second in the WSL, behind Katie Stengel (113).

She has won 55 of these duels, more than any other player in the WSL, while she also leads all of her Red Devils team-mates for tackles attempted (26) and won (17).

She recently shone for England in a 2-1 friendly win over South Africa, leading many to suggest she could be the long-term midfield solution for both club and country.

Clinton’s ability to hit the box from deep has become a key facet of her game, and only striker Elisabeth Terland (35) has had more touches in the opposition box among United players than her 23. Clinton is also second to Terland for shots taken (15) among United players.

Clinton is not the only player to watch in red, though. Since the start of October, only Man City duo Hemp (two goals, five assists) and Shaw (six goals, one assist) have been involved in more WSL goals than Celin Bizet (one goal, three assists), who got off the mark for the club versus Leicester City last time out.

Another standout performer has been defender Maya Le Tissier. While United’s resolute rearguard has put them among the chasing pack early on this term, it is with the ball that she really stands out from the crowd.

Le Tissier has enjoyed a team-leading 601 touches in the WSL this term, averaging 85.8 per game, while no United player has attempted (505) or completed (397) as many passes as she has.

Only Man City’s Alex Greenwood (120) – an England colleague of Le Tissier’s – has played more passes ending in the final third than her 90, among all WSL players.

Red Devils face Uphill Battle

While United have been excellent in defence so far this term, keeping a league-high five clean sheets, their 8.2 expected goals against (xGA) is just the fourth-best figure in the league, trailing Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City and suggesting they have benefited from poor finishing by opposing sides.

They may not get any good fortune at Kingsmeadow. Chelsea have put away 14 of their 23 big chances (60.9%) in 2024-25, while United have converted eight of their 17 (47.1%). If Skinner’s team are to halt Chelsea’s perfect start, they will need to combine solidity at the back with greater ruthlessness at the other end.

Chelsea are very much a bogey team for United, who have beaten every WSL team they have faced except for the Blues, drawing once and losing eight times against them to date.

They have lost more games, scored fewer goals (seven) and conceded more goals (27) against Chelsea than they have against any other opponent, being routed 6-0 when the teams last met on the final day of 2023-24, as Hayes’ Blues clinched a fifth straight league title.

The Opta supercomputer gives United a very slim chance of changing the record this weekend. Our predictive model had them coming out on top in just 12.2% of pre-match simulations, with a 16.3% chance of earning a draw.

Chelsea are heavy favourites to win, triumphing in 71.5% of scenarios. The Blues currently retain their title in a whopping 90.1% of the supercomputer’s season simulations, with United topping the pile in 0.1%.

Should Bompastor oversee another success against a potential rival, talk of Chelsea achieving the first unbeaten 22-game WSL season will only intensity. There remains a long way to go, but all the signs suggest they will take some stopping.

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SoccerNews

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