Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Prediction: Villarreal vs Real Madrid

Verdict: Under 3,5 goals – yes

Best Odds: 5/4

Bookmaker: 888sport

Villarreal and Real Madrid will end their respective Liga seasons after both clubs managed to complete their objectives. The hosts already secured a Europa League berth, and the visitors clinched a Champions League spot. As such, both clubs will play this for nothing more than their pride. But that could be a good-enough reason to try and get a good result.

Villarreal

Villarreal have enjoyed a decent season and with only one game left in the schedule, they don’t have anything to play for. El Submarino Amarillo already secured their berth in the UEFA Europa League berth, so they won’t have any sort of added pressure while playing against one of the best teams in La Liga. Even though Villarreal’s record against Real Madrid isn’t that bad – in fact, they won the reverse fixture at Santiago Bernabeu and have posted a W2, D1, L2 in the last five against Los Merengues – it wouldn’t have been an ideal scenario for Villarreal to be hard-pressed about getting a result. The hosts will have the chance to complete the double against Real Madrid, but more than that, they can play relaxed in front of their fans knowing that the main objective (qualifying for Europe) has been achieved.

Team News

Ramiro Guerra and Leonardo Suarez (both knee) are out for this game.

Bruno (leg) and Miguel Juan Llambrich (unspecified) are doubtful. Neither is likely to play, though.

Real Madrid

As it has been the trend over the past few games, Zinedine Zidane will probably rotate the squad once again. Los Merengues are roughly one week away from playing in the UEFA Champions League final against Liverpool, and that will undoubtedly be the biggest game of the season so the French tactician does not want to risk any of his potential starters for that game. The team’s league record over the past five matches has not been very impressive – just two wins – but their position on the standings has already been settled. At best, they can move up to second place but only if they win and Atletico Madrid lose their Sunday match against Eibar. But as things stand right now and considering what is at stake for Madrid, it seems Madrid’s mind is already focused in the upcoming match against Liverpool.

Team News

Real Madrid do not have confirmed absentees ahead of this game. However, Dani Carvajal (thigh) and Cristiano Ronaldo (ankle) won’t play so they can be at full strength for the game vs Liverpool.

There is a chance Zidane rotates the side for this contest. As a result, they might feature an alternative side in this game.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Real Madrid have had over 2,5 goals in each of their last five games across all competitions. The same outcome has happened in four of Villarreal’s last five matches.
  • As mentioned above, Villarreal won the reverse fixture at Santiago Bernabeu. The head-to-head record in the last five game shows two wins for each side and one draw.
  • Real Madrid have one of the best attacking lines in the entire Liga. They have netted 92 goals in just 37 matches.
  • Villarreal have been riding an impressive run of form of late with four wins and one loss in their past five matches. Meanwhile, Real Madrid have W2, D2, L1 over that span.

Conclusion

The last games between these two sides have alternated between over and under 2,5 goals. If that tendency maintains, then we could see over 2,5 goals in this one.

However, this not going to be a high-scoring affair. I expect it to feature under 3,5 goals scored.

Verdict: Under 3,5 goals – yes

Best Odds: 5/4

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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