Saturday, December 14, 2019

Prediction: AS Roma vs AC Milan

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 7/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

Two sides going through opposite runs of form will collide this Sunday in a thrilling Serie A encounter, as AS Roma will host AC Milan. The hosts have lost just once game all season long and remain alive on the race for a UEFA Champions League berth, while Milan currently sit closer than a potential relegation threat rather than a European spot. Kick-off for this match is slated at 18:00 hrs BST.

AS Roma

AS Roma have been consistent in their own consistency as they have posted a W3, D4, L1 mark over their first eight matches, but there are some positive signs going for them since they currently are on a three-game undefeated run (W1, D2) and have lost just once in their last five league matches (W2, D2, L1). They currently sit in sixth place of the standings and while a win would potentially climb them to fourth place, they would also depend on what happens with teams such as Cagliari and Napoli that sit ahead of them. One area where Roma must improve is their home record, however, as they have won just once in four matches at Stadio Olimpico this term (W1, D2, L1). They are winless in their last two home matches, but games at Stadio Olimpico tend to feature entertainment. Those four games have produced 16 total goals. Can that trend continue for another week?

Team News

Roma will be quite depleted ahead of this contest. Amadou Diawara (knee), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (thigh), Lorenzo Pellegrini (foot) and Cengiz Under (muscle) have all been ruled out. Bryan Cristante (groin), Nikola Kalinic (knee), Davide Santon (illness) and Davide Zappacosta (knee) are also out.

As if that wasn’t enough, Javier Pastore (knee) has been listed as doubtful. The Argentinian playmaker will be a game-time decision.

AC Milan

While Roma have looked decent despite their struggles and their injury crysis, Milan have not been able to perform at a very high level. The Rossoneri side might be riding a two-game undefeated streak (W1, D1), but they currently sit in 12th place of the standings with a poor W3, D1, L4 record in their first eight Serie A matches. The two-game run without a loss ended a three-game losing streak for Milan, and their problems have also been present when they are on the road. In four away Serie A matches, Milan have posted a W2, L2 mark thus far. Needless to say, they have their backs against the wall heading into this game. They know they must secure three points to avoid potential complications with a looming relegation threat.

Team News

AC Milan will be close to full strength ahead of this contest.

Their lone absentee will be Mattia Caldara, who is dealing with a knee injury.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Three of the last five AS Roma matches in all competitions have seen both sides scoring. However, all those contest have featured under 2.5 goals.
  • The last four AC Milan matches have seen both teams scoring. Each of those four contests have also produced over 2.5 goals.
  • There is an even record in the most recent H2H matches. During that span, each side has two wins and the remaining contest ended in a draw.
  • Out of those five H2H encounters, all have featured at least two goals scored in total.
  • Milan’s away matches have averaged 2.0 goals scored in total.

Conclusion

AC Milan and AS Roma both feature a huge amount of talent on their attacking line. Milan’s recent games have also been high-scoring affairs, with each of the last four witnessing at least three goals in total.

Expect that trend to continue once again.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 7/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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