Monday, September 21, 2020

Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Juan Pablo Aravena in Free Soccer Predictions, La Liga 28 Sep 2019


Verdict: Under 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 5/6

Bookmaker: 888sport

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid have one of the most heated, intense rivalries in Europe. The fact that these two sides have met in two UEFA Champions League finals over the last decade should make things even more bitter between both sides. On Saturday, we will witness another thrilling chapter of this heated rivalry. This time, both sides will collide at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano. Kick-off for this match is slated at 20:00 hrs BST.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid are coming off a 2-0 away win at Mallorca earlier this week, and that result ended a three-game winless run for Los Colchoneros in all competitions (D2, L1). In fact, Diego Simeone’s men have won just once in their last three Liga matches. That’s a drastic change of form after the Madrid-based outfit won each of their first three league outings to start the 2019/20 campaign. At the very least, Atletico remain undefeated in their first three league matches at home this season (W2, D1) and two of those matches have produced under 2.5 goals, highlighting a trend of low-scoring matches for Los Rojiblancos. That trend has repeated in their derbies against Real Madrid as well, although that hasn’t been the case when these two sides meet at Wanda Metropolitano. Three of the last four H2H meetings here have ended with over 2.5 goals scored.

Team News

Alvaro Morata has been ruled out for this game due to a suspension. Meanwhile, Sime Vrsaljko remains out with a knee problem.

Thomas Lemar has been listed as doubtful due to a thigh injury.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid manager Zinedine Zidane has been under heavy scrutiny this season, and several experts have criticised the French tactician following the heavy 3-0 defeat against Paris SG in the UEFA Champions League earlier this month. However, Los Blancos are not receiving all the credit they deserve. After the first six league matches have been completed, Real Madrid currently sit at the top of the Liga standings with 14 points (W4, D2) and they are one of two sides that are yet to taste defeat during the current term (Athletic Bilbao being the other). Los Merengues have been playing quite well on the road as well, where they have gone W2, D1 in their first three LaLiga away matches while averaging 2.0 goals scored per away game. Can they extend that trend and secure a big result against their bitter city rivals on enemy turf?

Team News

Marco Asensio is out for the year with an ACL injury. Ferland Mendy (groin) and Marcelo (neck) are not expected to feature either.

Isco (muscle), Brahim Díaz (groin) and Luka Modric (groin) are all doubtful. All three will be game-time decisions for Zinedine Zidane.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The last few Madrid derbies have been low-scoring affairs. Four of the last five LaLiga H2H meetings have featured under 2.5 goals.
  • Atletico Madrid remain extremely solid defensively. They are yet to concede a goal in the final 15 minutes of each half in league play.
  • Real Madrid have struggled on the road of late. In four of their last seven away league defeats, they have lost by at least a two-goal margin.
  • There has been at least five yellow cards in every H2H match since 2011.
  • Both sides’ last two league matches have featured just one side scoring. Combined, all four of those games have also had under 2.5 goals scored in total.


This game has all the makings of being a tight contest where neither side will give an inch to the other. Plus, the low-scoring tendencies are impossible to ignore.

Expect this match to feature under 2.5 goals in total once again.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 5/6

Bookmaker: 888sport


Juan Pablo Aravena

A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.



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