Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 7/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

Two sides with different objectives on their mind will collide this Sunday at Wanda Metropolitano. Villarreal remain entrenched on a race to avoid relegation, and they will have a tough assignment when they visit Atletico Madrid, a side that’s looking to solidify their place among the league’s top sides, and the lone side that continues to fight with Barcelona – sort of – for the league title. This match will kick-off at 15:15 GMT on Sunday.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid might be coming off a loss in their most recent home match in La Liga, but that shouldn’t change the fact that Los Colchoneros have consistently been one of the best home sides in the competition this season. That has been quite a trend over the past few years, since Diego Simeone’s men have turned their home venue into an authentic fortress, and that hasn’t been different during the current term. Through 12 home matches, Atletico register nine wins and only one defeat (W9, D2, L1) while scoring 20 times and conceding seven. Those seven home goals conceded represent the lowest mark at home in La Liga. To make things even better on their side, Atletico defeated Juventus 2-0 at home earlier this week in the Champions League. After defeating Cristiano Ronaldo’s team, there’s no question Los Colchoneros should enter this game as heavy favourites to keep themselves alive on the title race.

Team News

Atletico Madrid do not have confirmed absentees ahead of this match.

However, Lucas Hernandez will be a game-time decision. He’s been listed as questionable due to a knee problem.

Villarreal

El Submarino Amarillo have been one of the biggest disappointments of the current Liga season, as they began the campaign as a potential contender for a European spot but instead, they sit second-to-last in the standings. Through 24 games so far, Villarreal sit in 18th place with 23 points and they have won just four games all season long. Their away record does not do them any favours, either – they have been one of the worst away sides in the Liga this year with only one two wins in 11 matches (W2, D5, L4). They secured a decent 2-2 home draw against Real Madrid a while ago, but so far they have struggled against top sides during the current term. And to make things even worst, they haven’t won in their last five away outings (D3, L1). This is not a good sign considering the kind of opposition they will face on Sunday.

Team News

Villarreal have two confirmed absentees ahead of this match. Daniele Bonera (knock) and Manu Trigueros (knee) have both been ruled out.

Bruno, who’s dealing with a knee problem, is questionable. He will be a game-time decision entering this match.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both teams have scored in just one of Villarreal’s last five away LL games.
  • Low-scoring affair? Just two of the Atletico’s last 12 overall matches have produced over 2.5 total goals.
  • Four of Atletico Madrid’s last five matches in all competitions have seen only side scoring.
  • The last three meetings between both sides have seen both teams scoring, but only one of those has had over 2.5 goals scored.
  • Villarreal are undefeated in their last five meetings against Atletico Madrid (W3, D2).

Conclusion

Both sides have clear objectives entering this game. Knowing Atletico’s defensive ability and Villarreal’s struggles on the attacking end, I don’t think this game will end with many goals. In fact, it would be shocking if this game ended with over three total goals.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 7/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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