Thursday, November 15, 2018

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals – yes

Best Odds: 4/7

Bookmaker: 888sport

It’s time for another edition of ‘Der Klassiker’! One of the most-famous derbies in Europe will live another chapter this Saturday, when Borussia Dortmund hosts Bayern Munich in a thrilling Bundesliga encounter. The hosts sit at the top of the standings undefeated, but Bayern aim to close the gap with them with a win here at Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off is scheduled at 17:3o BST.

Borussia Dortmund

There’s no question Dortmund have had a successful season thus far. Lucien Favre’s men not only sit in the top spot in the Germn Bundesliga after the first 10 matches (W7, D3, 24 pts), but they also average three goals per game and have looked excellent on both ends of the pitch. This is clearly a step in the right direction following what happened last term, when they had to change manager midway through the season. But their impressive season hasn’t been restricted solely to the domestic level. BVB have also won three of their first four Group Stage matches in the UEFA Champions League and, barring an epic collapse, they shouldn’t have problems to cruise their way into the knockout stages as one of the top teams from the round robin. But a win over Bayern Munich would certainly put them over the top. Especially since collecting three points here would allowed them to increase their gap at the top of the standings.

Team News

Abdou Diallo has been ruled out with a groin injury, while Marcel Schmelzer won’t play due to a knee problem.

Plus, Sebastian Rode and Jeremy Toljan are both questionable due to undisclosed injuries.

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich might be the reigning Bundesliga champions, but they haven’t looked very good this season and have struggled to find the form they have had in recent years. Recently-appointed manager Niko Kovac hasn’t been able to replicate the success found by his predecessors, and at one point Bayern went four straight games without a win across all competitions. That’s unheard for Bayern, but they have turned things around of late and now they are riding a six-game undefeated streak (W5, D1), including two consecutive 2-0 wins over AEK Athens in the UEFA Champions League. Sitting third in the Bundesliga (W6, D2, L2, 20 pts) and riding a three-game unbeaten run in the Bundesliga, this seems like the perfect time for Bayern to try to pull the upset against Bayern. At the very least, it seems they’re riding their best form of the current campaign.

Team News

Bayern Munich will have four absentees for this pivotal match.

Arjen Robben and Corentin Tolisso have been ruled out due to knee injuries, while Kingsley Coman and Thiago Alcantara are out with ankle problems.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Wednesday’s defeat against Atletico Madrid (0-2) was the first match all season long (across all competitions) where Dortmund couldn’t score at least once.
  • Dortmund, however, are the highest-scoring team in the Bundesliga with 30 goals. They have also scored two or more goals in each of their last five home matches.
  • Both sides rank in the Top 3 in goals conceded in the Bundesliga thus far. Dortmund have allowed 10 goals and Bayern, 11.
  • Scoring first could be a factor here. Bayern Munich were winning at half-time in all six of their league wins so far.
  • Expect intensity! There have been 26 yellow cards in the last six H2H encounters.
  • The last five meetings between these two sides (in all competitions) have had over 2.5 goals.

Conclusion

The last five matches between these two sides have had over 2.5 goals, and four of those games featured both teams scoring.

Expect this one to feature at least three goals as well.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals – yes

Best Odds: 4/7

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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