Prediction: Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 14/5

Bookmaker: ZetBet

Both seeking to end 12 years of World Cup absence, Bosnia‑Herzegovina and Italy meet on Tuesday night in a decisive playoff final that will determine who books a place at this summer’s tournament.

Set to be played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica, the occasion promises high tension and drama, with neither nation having appeared on the global stage since 2014.

Bosnia‑Herzegovina

Bosnia face Italy for the seventh time in their history, with just a single victory to their name so far—a memorable 2–1 friendly win in Sarajevo back in 1996. Much has changed since then, but the stakes are identical for both sides now: one final hurdle stands between them and a long‑awaited return to the World Cup.

Bosnia’s route to this playoff final was hard‑fought. In Thursday’s semi‑final against Wales, they showed resilience and composure under pressure. After falling behind, veteran captain Edin Džeko dragged his side level before Bosnia held their nerve in a penalty shootout to edge past the Dragons in Cardiff. Victory on Tuesday would see them claim the final spot in Group B at the World Cup, alongside co‑hosts Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.

Unlike Italy, Bosnia narrowly missed out on automatic qualification. A late equaliser conceded against Group H winners Austria in November proved costly, denying them top spot and forcing them into the playoffs. Still, the chance to qualify for just their second major tournament since gaining independence remains firmly alive.

Conditions in Zenica may work in Bosnia’s favour. Freezing temperatures and a compact, partisan stadium are expected to create a hostile environment for the visitors, even if Bosnia sit 58 places below Italy in the latest FIFA rankings.

Team News

Sergej Barbarez is likely to stick with a familiar starting XI, particularly given his limited options. Teenager Kerim Alajbegović may yet force his way into the side, but experience will be key.

At 40, Džeko remains Bosnia’s talisman, leading the nation’s scoring charts with 73 goals and contributing six during this qualifying campaign. He is expected to partner Ermedin Demirović in attack, while Serie A defenders Tarik Muharemović and Sead Kolašinac bring valuable knowledge of Italian forwards.

Sampdoria centre‑back Dennis Hadžikadunić is the most notable absentee, while Sturm Graz trio Emir Karić, Arjan Malić and Jusuf Gazibegović were omitted from the squad.

Italy

Italy arrive in Zenica still burdened by the weight of recent World Cup failures. Despite being four‑time champions and lifting the European Championship in 2021, the Azzurri have not appeared at a World Cup since 2014. The pressure to qualify this time has reached almost unbearable levels.

This marks Italy’s third consecutive World Cup qualifying campaign to culminate in the playoffs. Painful eliminations at the hands of Sweden and North Macedonia still linger, but they avoided another disaster by overcoming Northern Ireland in Thursday’s semi‑final. After a tense, uneven first half in Bergamo, second‑half goals from Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean secured a 2–0 victory.

Italy’s qualifying journey has not been without concern. Although they won all other group matches, two heavy defeats to Norway exposed defensive vulnerabilities that still linger. Encouragingly, head coach Gennaro Gattuso has instilled greater attacking output since replacing Luciano Spalletti last September, with Italy now averaging over two goals per match under his guidance.

A World Cup winner as a player two decades ago, Gattuso now faces one of the defining moments of his managerial career. Victory would deliver redemption; defeat would plunge Italian football into further crisis.

Team News

Gattuso is expected to show loyalty to the side that beat Northern Ireland, although Mateo Retegui could make way after a subdued display. Twenty‑year‑old Inter striker Pio Esposito is pushing for a start, having scored three goals in his last five qualifiers and netting both of Inter’s most recent league goals.

Napoli captain Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Liverpool winger Federico Chiesa remain absent, but Alessandro Bastoni, Gianluca Mancini and Riccardo Calafiori have all recovered from minor issues and are available. Gianluca Scamacca is still troubled by an adductor problem, leaving Retegui, Kean and Esposito competing for two attacking positions.

Conclusion

With everything on the line and the pressure immense on both camps, this playoff final has all the ingredients of a gruelling contest. Caution, nerves and fine margins may dominate proceedings, and it would be little surprise if 120 tense minutes are required to determine who reaches the World Cup.

In a match defined as much by fear as ambition, staying tight at the back might be given priority over attacking flair.

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 14/5

Bookmaker: ZetBet