Thursday, July 2, 2020

Prediction: FC Koln vs RB Leipzig

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 11/25

Bookmaker: 888sport

Koln have been dealing with inconsistencies duing most of the season and have little to play for ahead of Monday’s matchup against RB Leipzig. The visitors, on the other hand, do not have a real shot at winning the title anymore but still need the three points to solidify their presence in the Top 4. This Monday matchup in the Bundesliga will kick-off at 20:30 GMT.

FC Koln

Koln enter this game sitting in the middle of the Bundesliga table, as they are in 11th place with 34 points. However, they are eight points adrift a potential 2020-21 UEFA Europa League spot. Considering how tight the standings are, their best bet seems to be accumulating enough points to get away from relegation and clinch a top-flight spot as soon as possible. To make things even more complicated, Koln are also riding a four-game winless streak (D2, L2) and have not won since the league resumed in mid-May. One thing that is not going to lack is entertainment, however. Koln’s last three matches have averaged 4.0 goals per game and all three have witnessed both teams scoring as well. Undoubtedly, they need to tighten things up defensively if they want to clinch a positive result here. They have averaged 2.0 conceded goals per game during their last five Bundesliga matches.

Team News

Sebastiaan Bornauw won’t play due to suspension, and Marcel Risse has been ruled out due to a knee injury.

Rafael Czichos (back) and Niklas Hauptmann (knee) will both be game-time decisions for this contest. Both are unlikely to play, though.

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig were one of the league’s biggest title candidates until recently, as a negative run of results removed them from that race of late. They are undefeated in each of their last nine Bundesliga matches, but they have struggled to close games out and have won just three times during that stretch (W3, D6). The inability to win can’t be attributed to their attack, though. Julian Nagelsmann’s men have netted eight times in just three games since the league resumed in mid-May. Their issues lies on defence, where the lack of focus seems to hurt them time and time again. Leipzig currently sit in fourth place with 55 points. However, they are 12 points behind Bayern Munich with six games left on the schedule. Right now, their man focus should be to secure a UEFA Champions League berth ahead of the 2020-21 campaign.

Team News

Marcel Halstenberg (suspension) has been ruled out of this game. The same goes for Ibrahima Konate (hip), Ethan Ampadu (back), Yussuf Poulsen (ankle) and Fabrice Hartmann (knee).

Kevin Kampl is doubtful due to injury as well. However, the versatile midfielder might very well recover in time for this matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Leipzig are riding a nine-game undefeated streak in the Bundesliga, with three wins and six draws over that stretch.
  • Koln, on the other hand, are on a run of five straight games where both teams have scored.
  • RB Leipzig hold the edge in the recent H2H record. They have gone undefeated in four of their last five games against Koln (W3, D1, L1).
  • Koln are undefeated in their last three Bundesliga matches at home (W1, D2). All three matches have produced over 2.5 goals scored.
  • Meanwhile, Leipzig have gone five straight without a loss on the road across all competitions (W3, D2).

Conclusion

If there’s one thing that has stayed consistent for both Koln and Leipzig, that’s the fact that goals have been flying every time these two sides take the pitch.

That trend shouldn’t change here. Each of the last four H2H has produced over 2.5 total goals, and we could be in line for a similar performance here.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 11/25

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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