Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Prediction: Getafe vs Real Madrid

Juan Pablo Aravena in Free Soccer Predictions, La Liga 25 Apr 2019


Verdict: Under 3.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 4/11

Bookmaker: 888sport

Real Madrid can’t win league title anymore, so their best bet will be to clinch a UEFA Champions League spot as soon as possible. With that in mind, Los Merengues will visit a Getafe side that have been the biggest surprise in the Liga this season. This tilt between potential Champions League sides for the 2019-20 season will meet this Thursday. Kick-off is slated at 21:30 hrs BST.


There’s no question this season has been an absolute success for Getafe. The Spanish side has been impressive all over the campaign and with only five games left in the schedule, they remain very much alive on the race for a Champions League berth. This is extremely surprising since Getafe were expected to finish the year around the middle of the standings based on pre-season projections. One of the biggest strengths of their play during the campaign has been their form at home. Los Azulones have won 31 points (W10, D1, L5) in their 16 Liga home matches this term, and they’re currently on a good run of form at the moment since they’ve gone W4, L1 in their past five, including two straight wins in their past two matches. Can they keep this run going against their city rivals, knowing a win here would be huge for their Champions League chances?

Team News

Getafe will have two absentees ahead of this match.

Vitorino Antunes (knee) and Amath Ndiaye (knee) have both been ruled out.

Real Madrid

Los Merengues register three wins in their previous three league matches (W3, D1, L1) and they’ve been turning things around since the arrival of Zinedine Zidane. Granted, the French tactician has been Madrid’s third manager this current term. And considering they’re already out of all three major tournaments in the current term, it seems Real Madrid just want the 2018-19 season to end. Zinedine Zidane’s men know winning here could be huge since they keep trying to end the campaign in second place. But for that to happen, they need to continue playing at a very high level as they’ve been doing it in recent weeks. Can they continue that trend as they make one final push for a potential Top 2 finish? They’re on a three-game undefeated streak over the past few games, and that’ll be key down the stretch.

Team News

Los Merengues will be missing two regular starters ahead of this match. Thibaut Courtois (thigh), Sergio Ramos (calf) have been ruled out due to injury, and Alvaro Odriozola (cheekbone) has also been listed as out.

To make things even more complicated, Mariano Diaz is doubtful due to a groin injury. The Dominican-born striker has missed the past few games, and he’s not expected to play here either.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Getafe have avoided defeat in just a third (33.33%) of their Liga matches when they haven’t been favourites on the bets.
  • Seven of Real’s last eight LL away games have produced over 2.5 goals. Seven of those have also seen both teams score.
  • Only one side has scored in three of Getafe’s last five matches. On the other hand, four of Real’s last five games have seen goals at both ends.
  • Four of the past five H2H matches have seen over 2.5 goals scored. Four have also featured both sides scoring.
  • Real Madrid are riding a 10-game winning streak over Getafe in Liga matches.


Recent matches between these two sides have been “goalfests”. However, both sides enter this match with a sense of urgency. Both clubs need the three points.

Therefore, I believe this match will be closer than previous ones. Under 3.5 goals here is the best alternative.

Verdict: Under 3.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 4/11

Bookmaker: 888sport


Juan Pablo Aravena

A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.



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