Thursday, April 9, 2020

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

Juan Pablo Aravena in Free Soccer Predictions, La Liga 12 Jan 2020

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Verdict: Over 3,5 goals – yes

Best Odds: 27/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will determine which team will earn the Spanish Super Cup. This competition is now being played under a new, revamped format — four teams on a neutral venue — and now these two Madrid rivals will be vying for the title. This match will kick-off Sunday at 18:00 GMT. Which side will come out on top in this heated, bitter rivalry?

Real Madrid

Real Madrid enter this game on a sizzling run across all competitions, as they enter this game on a 15-game undefeated run (W10, D5) and they dropped just one game in their most recent 20 outings. Their lone defeat during that 20-game stretch came all the way back to October 19th, when they lost 1-0 on the road against Mallorca. Real Madrid have scored three or more goals in each of their last three wins, and they have conceded just four goals in their last 10 games as well. Manager Zinedine Zidane has his side performing at the best of their abilities right now, and they should be considered as favourites entering this decisive title matchup. But they can’t take Atletico Madrid for granted, as Diego Simeone is known for assembling tough defensive schemes. But Real Madrid, on the other hand, have enough quality to destroy any opposing defence. Just ask Valencia, as Madrid defeated them in the tournament’s semifinals by a 3-1 score earlier this week.

Team News

Los Merengues could be quite depleted on the attacking end. Karim Benzema (muscle), Gareth Bale (illness) and Eden Hazard (ankle) have all been ruled out of this match. Marco Asensio is out with a knee injury as well. However, the Spain international has already been ruled out for the entire season due to his ACL problem.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid came out of nowhere to mount an impressive comeback against FC Barcelona during the tournament’s semifinals on Thursday. Los Blaugranas were up 2-1 late in the second half, but Atletico netted two goals in the final 10 minutes to secure the win thanks to goals from Alvaro Morata and Angel Correa. Simeone’s men have been playing at a high level in recent weeks, and they enter this title-deciding matchup on the heels of a six-game undefeated streak (W5, D1) as well as five straight wins. The last three matches have ended with both teams scoring, however, so we might be in line for action on both ends once again. Considering the recent track record between these two sides and what’s at stake here, a tight encounter could be on the line once again. Can Atletico pull another upset and take the Spanish Super Cup home?

Team News

Diego Simeone will have almost his entire squad available ahead of this match. The lone big absentee will be Diego Costa, who is dealing with a hernia. The rest of the squad, however, should be fit and available.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Five of the last six H2H meetings between these two sides have ended in a draw.
  • All six goals Real Madrid have conceded since the end of November arrived in the second half.
  • Atlético Madrid’s last three wins, and their last three defeats, all came via a one-goal margin.
  • The last four matches between these two sides on neutral soil have ended with both sides scoring.
  • Real Madrid enter this game on a 15-match undefeated run in all competitions (W10, D5).
  • On the other hand, Atletico have not lost in any of their last six contests in all competitions (W5, D1).

Conclusion

The last four competitive matches between these two sides in cup competitions — domestic and European — have ended with three or more goals. Considering the two Super Cup matches have ended with four or more goals, the prediction is clear. We can expect another goalfest between these two bitter rivals.

Verdict: Over 3,5 goals – yes

Best Odds: 27/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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