Friday, December 6, 2019

Prediction: USA vs Mexico

Juan Pablo Aravena in Free Soccer Predictions 7 Jul 2019


Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 13/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

The 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup comes to an end with the final match everybody was hoping for. Mexico and USA both had problems in their knockout-stage matches, but both sides came away unscathed to meet in the decisive match once again. This time, the venue will be Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. One would think the USMNT would be favourites since they’re playing at home, but Mexico tends to have good support across the States as well. Kick-off for this thrilling match is scheduled at 02:30 AM, BST.


The USMNT have had a relatively easy path towards the decisive match of the tournament. They won their three group-stage matches with little to no complications (4-0 against Guyana, 6-0 against Trinidad and Tobago and 1-0 against Panamá), and they also secured two wins – against lesser sides again – during the knockout stages. Gregg Berhalter’s men defeated Curazao in the quarterfinals (1-0) and later got past Jamaica with a 3-1 score in a match where Chelsea’s new signing Christian Pulisic scored a brace. Considering Berhalter is testing several new names into the USMNT set up, this Gold Cup will probably leave a positive taste in everyone’s mouth regardless of what happens against Mexico. But given the rivalry between these two nations, we can expect The Stars & Stripes to come out firing in this match. After all, they’ve scored the opening goal in their five Gold Cup matches so far.

Team News

United States won’t have absentees from their current squad and they’ll likely repeat the same starting XI they’ve been using in past matches.

However, three important players have not featured in the tournament thus far. These are Anthony Brooks, DeAndre Yedlin and Tyler Adams.


Unlike their opponents, Mexico haven’t had an easy journey towards reclaiming the Gold Cup. They also won their three group-stage matches (7-0 against minnows Cuba, 3-1 against Canadá and 3-2 against Martinica), but they suffered far more than expected in the knockout rounds. El Tri needed a penalty shootout to get past Costa Rica in the quarterfinals, and later needed an extra-time goal to defeat Haiti in the semifinals. This was probably not the start Gerardo Martino would’ve wanted since they were expected to breeze their way towards the Final, but the Argentinian manager should definitively take some positives out of the team’s performances considering the high number of absentees (more on that below in the ‘team news’ section). El Tri remain undefeated so far in the Gold Cup (W4, D1) but they haven’t faced an opponent such as the USMNT yet. Can they recover the title they last won back in 2015?

Team News

Mexico have the entire squad for this tournament available. But just like the USMNT, they’ll also have several regulars sidelined.

Names such as Hirving Lozano, Javier Hernandez, Diego Lainez, Jesus Corona and Hector Herrera have all been absent from the Gold Cup squad due to various reasons.

Key Factors to Consider

  • This will be the sixth time these two sides meet in the Gold Cup finals. Mexico have won four of those matches (W4, L1).
  • USA have six Gold Cup titles, while Mexico have lifted the trophy seven times. The only other side that won the title was Canada (2000).
  • There has been an average of 3.8 goals across the previous five Gold Cup finals between these nations.
  • USA had a four-game run of victories “to nil” before their 3-1 victory over Jamaica in the semifinals.
  • On the other hand, both teams have scored in eight of Mexico’s last nine victories (counting 90 minutes only).


This should be a very even match. Contests between the USMNT and Mexico tend to be quite intense, especially considering what’s at stake here and the fact that The Stars & Stripes will be at home. Plus, there’s always that rivalry to determine which one of these two is the absolute “giant” of the CONCACAF region.

I expect this match to be quite open. Therefore, I believe it will end up with over 2.5 goals scored overall.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 13/10

Bookmaker: 888sport


Juan Pablo Aravena

A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.



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