Monday, December 10, 2018

Prediction: Valencia vs Sevilla

Verdict: Over 2,5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 5/6

Bookmaker: 888sport

Two of Spain’s representatives in Europe this season will go toe-to-toe at Mestalla this Saturday, when Valencia takes on Sevilla. Both sides are coming off disappointing results the last time out. Both need a win in order to bounce back, especially considering they will play European fixtures in the coming week. Kick-off is scheduled at 15:15 BST.

Valencia

Marcelino’s men have experienced an inconsistent season, and their five-game form slate is the best example of that. Los Che have posted a W2, D1, L2 mark in their last five league matches, but are coming off a 0-2 away loss at Real Madrid the last time out. Losing against Los Blancos is expected, but Los Che looked unable to pose much of a threat on the attacking end throughout the entire match, something that could worry Marcelino. For what is worth, the scoring woes have been quite a theme for Los Che during the current term. Through the first 14 games of the season, Valencia own the worst attack in La Liga with only 11 goals scored, but they seem to compensate that on the other end since they own the second-best defence with only 11 goals against them. They sit in 14th place with 17 points but since they are only four points behind the Europa League qualification spots, winning against Sevilla could be huge for them on their quest to leave their slow start in the rear view.

Team News

Valencia do not have confirmed absentees ahead of this match.

That does not mean they will be at full strength, though. Star striker Rodrigo is doubtful due to a muscular injury, and will be a game-time decision.

Sevilla

Sevilla had a golden chance to remain at the top of the Liga standings the last time out, but they couldn’t deliver when it mattered the most and a 1-1 draw against Alaves saw them surrender the pole position of the standings to Barcelona. But even if their recent result wasn’t a positive one, there’s no question Pablo Machin has done an excellent job with Los Nervionenses. Through the first 14 games of the campaign, Sevilla have lost just three times and own the second spot in the standings with 27 points (W8, D3, L3). Their recent form has been very good as well, with three wins and two draws in their previous five league outings – they sit at the top of the five-game form tied with Girona with 11 points taken out of a possible 15. Machin could rotate the side considering Sevilla will play a pivotal UEFA Europa League match the following week, but the team has performed well on the road (W3, D2, L2). That should give them enough confidence to try and get a positive result here.

Team News

Sevilla won’t have Maxime Gonalons available for a while. The French midfielder will be out for the foreseeable future after suffering a broken ankle.

Meanwhile, Jesus Navas is doubtful due to a muscular injury. The former Manchester City winger will be a game-time decision for Machin.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Valencia’s scoring woes have forced them to be involved in low-scoring affairs, and only two of their 14 league matches have seen over 2.5 goals scored.
  • On the opposite end, eight of Sevilla’s Liga matches have had at least three goals in total.
  • Valencia have the edge when it comes to the recent H2H record. The previous five matches between both sides read: W3, D1, L1 for Los Che.
  • The last three matches between these two sides have had only one – or none – team scoring.
  • Both sides have won five of their past 10 games across all competitions, but with different records (VAL: W5, D2, L3 – SEV: W5, D3, L2)

Conclusion

Sevilla have been one of the best teams in the league this season. And even though Valencia are regularly involved in low-scoring affairs, they need to play with a more attacking approach if they want to get closer to the Europa League spots.

With that in mind, we could expect over 2.5 goals scored in this one.

Verdict: Over 2,5 goals scored – yes

Best Odds: 5/6

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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