Sunday, June 7, 2020

Prediction: Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen

Verdict: Over 2,5 total goals – yes

Best Odds: 13/20

Bookmaker: 888sport

The first week of the 2019-20 Bundesliga season following the Coronavirus suspension will end Monday with the matchup between Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen. The hosts need the win if they want to avoid relegation, but the visitors enter this matchup in a thrilling run of form. This contest will kick-off at 20:30 hrs GMT.

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen have been one of the most disappointing teams in the 2019-20 Bundesliga. They were expected to challenge for a UEFA Europa League berth or, at least, they were likely to finish in the top half of the standings. However, they look like a big candidate to get relegated 24 games into the season. Bremen are in 17th place with 18 points (W4, D6, L14) and a league-worst 55 goals conceded. They also own the league’s joint-worst attack with 27 goals scored, meaning the struggles are palpable on both ends of the pitch. To make things even more complicated, Bremen enter this matchup on the heels of a six-game winless run in the Bundesliga, taking just one point of 18 available during that stretch. They must play considerably better if they want to conquer the miracle of avoiding relegation. So far, their play has not been good enough.

Team News

Bremen will be considerably depleted ahead of this matchup. Ludwig Augustinsson (muscle), Davy Klaassen (suspension) and Claudio Pizarro (muscle) stand out as confirmed absentees.

Niclas Fullkrug (knee) and Kevin Mohwald (knee) won’t play either, based on recent reports. Experienced centre-back Omer Toprak has been listed as questionable due to a calf problem.

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen sit in fifth place with 47 points (W14, D5, L6) after 24 games. They are quite far from Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund at the top of the standings but are very much alive in the race for a 2020-21 UEFA Champions League berth. To make things even better, Leverkusen were one of the hottest teams in the league before the Bundesliga got suspended back in March due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Peter Bosz’s men have gone W4, D1 in their last five Bundesliga matches while also posting a 10-game undefeated streak in all competitions (W9, D1). Leverkusen have also secured a two-goal (or better) winning margin in each of their last five wins in all competitions, meaning they are dominating the opposition when the chance arises. A win here could bring them closer to a potential Top 4 finish.

Team News

Leverkusen will be close to full strength in this game. Their lone confirmed absentee will be Kevin Volland, who is dealing with an ankle problem.

The rest of the team is fit and available.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Leverkusen have won nine of their last 10 games (W9, D1) in all competitions. They have scored at least two goals in each of those wins.
  • Bremen, on the other hand, have taken just one point of their last 18 available in the Bundesliga.
  • To make matters even more complicated, Bremen have scored just three goals during that aforementioned six-game span (D1, L5).
  • The last five H2H meetings have averaged 4.0 total goals (excluding extra time).
  • Three of those five games have seen the opening goal arrive in the first 10 minutes. Four have featured the first strike during the first 15′.

Conclusion

Leverkusen are undefeated in their last 10 games in all competitions, while Bremen have not win in seven of their last eight games across all tournaments. Leverkusen fully deserve to be tagged as the favourites here.

This contest could also produce several goals based on what both sides have done of late. Four of the last five H2H meetings have produced over 2.5 goals and that trend should continue here.

Verdict: Over 2,5 total goals – yes

Best Odds: 13/20

Bookmaker: 888sport

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Juan Pablo Aravena


A freelance writer and sports analyst with almost five years of experience in the industry before joining SoccerNews, Juan Pablo Aravena is based in Chile and currently contributes to several publications and websites including SoccerNews, 12up, and Sports From The Basement, while also working as a fantasy beat writer for RotoWire, as a database editor for EA Sports, and as a football analyst for SmartOdds and InsideFutbol. His areas of focus are Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, and Ligue 1, but he has also written about MLS and South American football in the past.

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