The Numbers Game: Can Southampton pull off another FA Cup upset against Man City?

The first of the FA Cup semi-finals is taking place on Saturday, with Manchester City and Southampton facing off for a place in May’s showpiece.

City are chasing a domestic treble; after lifting the EFL Cup in March, they boosted their Premier League title chances in midweek, with a win over Burnley lifting them to the top of the table.

But Pep Guardiola will also be keen to get his hands on the FA Cup. City may have reached the last three finals, but not since 2022-23 have they tasted glory in the competition.

On paper, this may look like the easier of the two draws, but Southampton will be determined to make a mark at Wembley, with the intention of following their Arsenal upset with another shock.

As the only Championship side left in the competition, it is up to them to try and rewrite the script.

This clash will put two in-form sides against each other, but who will prevail? Here, we delve into Opta data to find out.

What a run it’s been to @wembleystadium for @SouthamptonFC in the #EmiratesFACup pic.twitter.com/dBHiLj6DFA

— Emirates FA Cup (@EmiratesFACup) April 20, 2026

What’s expected?

Man City have enjoyed playing Southampton in recent years, and the Opta supercomputer expects this game to follow a similar pattern.

City have faced Southampton in four previous FA Cup ties, winning 5-0 in 1909-10, 3-1 in 2006-07 and 4-1 in 2021-22.

They lost 5-1 in the other in the third round in 1959-60.

In all competitions, Southampton have lost 13 of their last 18 matches against City (W2 D3), though their most recent meeting was a 0-0 draw in the Premier League in May 2025.

So, City are given a 74.7% chance of booking their place in a fourth straight FA Cup showpiece – something no team has ever managed in the competition’s history.

Southampton’s hopes of victory sit at just 10.8%, while they are given another 14.5% chance of taking the tie to extra time with a draw.

But they have often struggled in FA Cup semi-finals, having been knocked out in nine of their last 13 such matches, most recently losing to Leicester City in 2020-21.

There is more good news in that for City: Eight of the nine teams to knock the Saints out at that stage then went on to lift the trophy, with the exception being Arsenal in 1926-27.

Can Guardiola write more history?

City are a force to be reckoned with in the FA Cup, despite missing out on the trophy in the last two years, with losses to Manchester United and Crystal Palace, respectively.

Their run of eight consecutive semi-finals stretches all the way back to 2018-19, and history is on the line as they bid to reach a fourth straight showpiece.

Since the 2016-17 season in the FA Cup, City have won the most matches (44), scored the most goals (157) and kept the most clean sheets (28) of any side.

However, six of their seven defeats in the competition under Pep Guardiola have come at Wembley – the other was at the DW Stadium versus Wigan Athletic in February 2018.

And against lower-league sides, City often come out on top. They have won their last 21 FA Cup matches against sides from outside the Premier League, scoring 84 goals and only conceding 11.

It is the outright longest winning run ever in the competition’s history by top-flight sides against lower league teams.

They beat Exeter City 10-1 in the third round, becoming the first top-flight team since Tottenham beat Crewe Alexandra 13-2 in a fourth-round replay in February 1960 to notch double figures in an FA Cup game.

Since then, they have gone on to beat Salford City, Newcastle United and Liverpool, who they thrashed 4-0, led by an Erling Haaland hat-trick.

Guardiola’s win ratio of 85% in the FA Cup (44 wins in 52 games) is 16% higher than any other manager in the competition, and he will be keen to help City write their names into the history books once more.

Southampton aim to throw spanner in the works

Southampton caused quite the stir in the quarter-finals with their shock win over Arsenal, with Shea Charles having the telling touch to deal the Premier League leaders a defeat.

And they will be full of confidence heading to Wembley, having pushed themselves into the Championship play-off picture, and within touching distance of the second automatic promotion spot.

They are unbeaten in each of their last 17 league games, and that run stretches to 20 matches in all competitions (W16 D4).

As well as knocking out Arsenal, Southampton have also gone past Doncaster Rovers, Leicester City and another Premier League side in Fulham to get to this stage of the competition, and are the last non-top-flight team standing.

Southampton are looking to become the first non-Premier League side to reach the FA Cup final since Cardiff City in 2007-08, who beat fellow Championship side Barnsley in the semi-final.

On the last 15 occasions that a top-flight team has faced a side from outside their league in the semi-final, the higher-ranked team has qualified; Sunderland, against Norwich City in 1991-92, were the last to progress.

Southampton have lost eight of their 11 matches at Wembley (W3), including both of their FA Cup semi-finals played there in 2017-18 against Chelsea and 2020-21 against Leicester.

Their three wins at the national stadium were in the 1976 FA Cup final against Man Utd, the 2010 EFL Trophy final against Carlisle United and the 2024 Championship play-off final against Leeds United.

So, history mostly seems to be against Southampton, but Tonda Eckert will definitely not shy away from the challenge in front of him, especially given their recent surge.

In moving up to fourth in the Championship, Southampton have scored 38 goals and conceded just 13 in their 17-match unbeaten streak.

It is safe to say Guardiola will not be taking this challenge lightly, and Southampton cannot be counted out.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City – Erling Haaland

Haaland has scored 12 goals in 12 FA Cup appearances for Man City, with 11 of those 12 goals coming as part of hat-tricks (three vs Burnley in 2023, five vs Luton Town in 2024, three vs Liverpool in 2026).

However, he has never scored or assisted in a single semi-final or final in any competition for City.

Haaland has played 14 games, 1,140 minutes, had 25 shots and 62 touches in the opposition box.

Southampton – Ross Stewart

Stewart has scored three goals in five FA Cup appearances (one in two for Sunderland, two in three for Southampton), scoring those from just four shots on target.

He also scored on his last Wembley appearance back in May 2022, for Sunderland in their victorious League One play-off final against Wycombe Wanderers.